Tampa Bay vs Sporting Jax: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 19hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%O2.581%66%|exp. goals 2.4 : 1.0
H2Hlast meeting
- Sporting Jax0:1Tampa BayW
Tampa Bay's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses1.0 goals per match
too few to read anything intoCornersleague corners9.3league 9.2under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.2league 4.2under 4.5: 59%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model3.3 : 1.0total 4.3Attack/defence2.4 : 1.0total 3.4
Tampa Bay : Sporting JaxMost likely scores
Model2-07%2-17%1-1—3-18%3-08%1-0—4-17%Attack/defence2-010%2-110%1-18%3-18%3-08%1-08%4-1—
ModelAttack/defence2-02-07%2-010%2-12-17%2-110%1-11-1—1-18%3-13-18%3-18%3-03-08%3-08%1-01-0—1-08%4-14-17%4-1—
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 93%85% | 85% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 92%87% | 87% |
| 12 – no draw | 89%82% | 82% |
| 1 – Tampa Bay win | 81%69% · Elo 66% | 69%· Elo 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81%66% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 63%44% | 44% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 37%56% | 56% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20%34% | 34% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 19%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 12%18% · Elo 20% | 18%· Elo 20% |
| 2 – Sporting Jax win | 8%13% · Elo 14% | 13%· Elo 14% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 7%15% | 15% |
Attack vs defence
Tampa Bay attack vs Sporting Jax defenceattack1600defence1314+286 pts to the attack
Sporting Jax attack vs Tampa Bay defenceattack1469defence1544−75 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 50%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 50%over
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.563%51%
8.550%34%
9.538%28%
10.527%24%
Each team on its own
Tampa Baywe expect 6.3, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 73%
Sporting Jaxwe expect 3.1, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 37%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 22.5 in this match, 22.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.555%63%
22.548%52%
23.541%46%
24.535%41%
Each team on its own
Tampa Baywe expect 11.3, league average 11.0 · chance of over 11.5: 46%
Sporting Jaxwe expect 11.1, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 43%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 67%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 33%over
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.586%70%
2.567%55%
3.546%39%
4.527%17%
Each team on its own
Tampa Baywe expect 2.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 64%
Sporting Jaxwe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sporting Jax concede 2.9 goals per game
- Sporting Jax: 4 defeats in a row
- Sporting Jax: newly promoted
- Sporting Jax played 3 days ago
- Tampa Bay: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 49:26 | 55 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Tampa Bay vs Sporting Jax?
Tampa Bay are the favourites. Chances: Tampa Bay win 81%, draw 12%, Sporting Jax win 8%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Tampa Bay vs Sporting Jax?
Expected goals: 4.3 (Tampa Bay 3.3, Sporting Jax 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 81%. Most likely score: 3-1.
When is Tampa Bay vs Sporting Jax?
The USL Championship match kicks off 25 October 2026, 00:30 (UK time).