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Challenger GuayaquilChallenger 75Quarterfinalclaybest of three setsqualifying

Aboian vs Hardt 2:1: result and our tips

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Valerio AboianATP #258Elo 1702clay 1709
2:1final6:2 1:6 7:6(5)
Nick HardtATP #296Elo 1643clay 1653

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Won58%

Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 58%

Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Aboian 14 of 20, Hardt 15 of 20 (tour average 59%); Aboian: 5 matches in a row over 19.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 23.5Won38%

Where the number comes from: market alone 41% → with the players' profiles 38%

Over 23.5 games in recent matches: Aboian 13 of 20, Hardt 11 of 20 (tour average 36%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Valerio Aboian39%
Nick Hardt61%

Elo: V. Aboian 58% · N. Hardt 42%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 V. Aboian22%
2:1 V. Aboian17%
2:1 N. Hardt22%
2:0 N. Hardt40%

First set

Valerio Aboian41%
Nick Hardt59%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 55%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.574%27%76%
18.565%35%68%
19.558%42%59%
20.552%48%52%
21.545%55%46%
22.541%59%40%
23.539%61%36%

Sample: 4,914 matches

Games handicap

N. Hardt −2.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes20%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 28 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Valerio AboianNick Hardt
12Aces0
3Double faults3
58%First serves in71%
82%First-serve points won73%
39%Second-serve points won42%
3/7Break points converted3/6
10/13Service games held11/14
64%Service points won64%
36%Return points won37%
86Total points won89

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

V. AboianTourN. Hardt
Service points won59%62%58%
Return points won42%38%42%
Service games held70%76%69%
Breaks of serve32%24%33%
Aces per service game0.420.16
Double faults per game0.190.39
Sets with a tie-break10%9%
Tie-breaks won7/155/7
Wins in straight sets42%50%
Matches in the sample6032

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Valerio Aboian

Nick Hardt

Elo over the last year

Valerio AboianNick Hardt

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

V. AboianN. Hardt
Hard court0–00–20%
Clay36–2460%18–1260%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Valerio Aboian

Nick Hardt

See also