WTA 125 SamsunFinalhardbest of three sets

Aksu vs Stefanini 2:1: result and our tips

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Ayla AksuWTA #156Elo 1636hard 1643
2:1final7:5 2:6 6:2
Lucrezia StefaniniWTA #106Elo 1754hard 1740

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: StefaniniLost68%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Stefanini: 4 matches in a row winning the first set; Aksu lost the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches, Stefanini won the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: StefaniniLost76%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 76%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Stefanini: 4 wins in a row; Stefanini won 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ayla Aksu24%
Lucrezia Stefanini76%

Elo: A. Aksu 36% · L. Stefanini 64%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Aksu15%
2:1 A. Aksu13%
2:1 L. Stefanini19%
2:0 L. Stefanini53%

First set

Ayla Aksu33%
Lucrezia Stefanini68%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes32%
no68%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.0 · 47%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.582%18%79%
17.573%27%70%
18.561%39%61%
19.553%47%53%
20.547%53%46%
21.540%60%41%
22.536%64%37%

Sample: 1,621 matches

Games handicap

Lucrezia Stefanini −4.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes21%

tour average 21%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 20.0out · 28 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Ayla AksuLucrezia Stefanini
0Aces1
3Double faults5
92%First serves in98%
59%First-serve points won56%
71%Second-serve points won50%
5/21Break points converted4/7
10/14Service games held9/14
60%Service points won56%
44%Return points won40%
95Total points won90

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. AksuTourL. Stefanini
Service points won55%56%52%
Return points won44%44%49%
Service games held62%63%55%
Breaks of serve36%37%46%
Aces per service game0.130.03
Double faults per game0.350.27
Sets with a tie-break8%9%
Tie-breaks won2/44/11
Wins in straight sets58%62%
Matches in the sample2352

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ayla Aksu

Lucrezia Stefanini

Elo over the last year

Ayla AksuLucrezia Stefanini

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. AksuL. Stefanini
Hard court10–953%24–1660%
Clay2–250%1–420%
Grass0–04–357%

Head to head

A. Aksu 0–1 L. Stefanini

  • 24/08/26Winner: Lucrezia Stefanini2:6 3:6

Road through the tournament

Ayla Aksu

Lucrezia Stefanini

See also