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ATP Tour Finals TurinFinalsRound robinhard, indoorbest of three sets

Alcaraz vs Cobolli: prediction and tips

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Carlos AlcarazATP #3Elo 2427hard 2378
-:-
Flavio CobolliATP #6Elo 2056hard 1999

Our tips

Tip in 4d 7h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.

Match chances

Winner chance from Elo (no market). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Carlos Alcaraz90%
Flavio Cobolli10%

Elo: C. Alcaraz 90% · F. Cobolli 10%

from Elo (no market)

Set score

2:0 C. Alcaraz65%
2:1 C. Alcaraz20%
2:1 F. Cobolli7%
2:0 F. Cobolli8%

First set

Carlos Alcaraz78%
Flavio Cobolli22%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes27%
no73%

Total games

Expected total: 22.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.580%20%83%
18.571%29%75%
19.561%39%66%
20.552%48%58%
21.546%54%53%
22.539%61%45%
23.533%67%39%

Sample: 3,118 matches

Games handicap

C. Alcaraz −4.554%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes35%

tour average 37%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. AlcarazTourF. Cobolli
Service points won67%62%63%
Return points won41%38%37%
Service games held87%76%79%
Breaks of serve29%24%21%
Aces per service game0.390.49
Double faults per game0.180.22
Sets with a tie-break23%18%
Tie-breaks won18/2817/27
Wins in straight sets77%46%
Matches in the sample4957

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Carlos Alcaraz

Flavio Cobolli

Elo over the last year

Carlos AlcarazFlavio Cobolli

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. AlcarazF. Cobolli
Hard court38–588%17–1357%
Clay5–183%14–767%
Grass0–04–267%

Head to head

C. Alcaraz 1–0 F. Cobolli

  • 29/05/23Winner: C. Alcaraz6:0 6:2 7:5

Upcoming matches

See also