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ATP Basel500Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Altmaier vs Cerúndolo 2:1: result and our tips

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Daniel AltmaierATP #60Elo 1895hard 1836
2:1final6:7(5) 7:6(4) 6:4
Juan Manuel CerúndoloATP #54Elo 1951hard 1875

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 25.5Lost59%

Where the number comes from: market alone 61% → with the players' profiles 59%

Under 25.5 games in 4 of their 4 head-to-head matches

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost60%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Cerundolo: 5 matches in a row without a deciding set

Long shot
Total Games: Under 22.5Lost45%

Where the number comes from: market alone 49% → with the players' profiles 45%

Cerundolo: 5 matches in a row under 22.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Daniel Altmaier44%
Juan Manuel Cerúndolo56%

Elo: D. Altmaier 44% · J. Cerúndolo 56%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Altmaier25%
2:1 D. Altmaier20%
2:1 J. Cerúndolo21%
2:0 J. Cerúndolo35%

First set

Daniel Altmaier46%
Juan Manuel Cerúndolo54%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.5 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 23.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.569%31%60%
21.562%38%54%
22.555%45%46%
23.548%52%40%
24.544%56%38%
25.541%59%35%
26.536%64%30%

Sample: 5,719 matches

Games handicap

J. Cerúndolo −1.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes47%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 23.5out · 36 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Daniel AltmaierJuan Manuel Cerúndolo
14Aces7
1Double faults3
71%First serves in64%
80%First-serve points won75%
63%Second-serve points won65%
1/4Break points converted0/1
17/17Service games held16/17
75%Service points won71%
29%Return points won25%
110Total points won105

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. AltmaierTourJ. Cerúndolo
Service points won63%62%64%
Return points won35%38%37%
Service games held78%76%79%
Breaks of serve18%24%23%
Aces per service game0.580.43
Double faults per game0.240.22
Sets with a tie-break19%18%
Tie-breaks won13/2814/29
Wins in straight sets57%58%
Matches in the sample6164

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Daniel Altmaier

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo

Elo over the last year

Daniel AltmaierJuan Manuel Cerúndolo

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. AltmaierJ. Cerúndolo
Hard court11–1641%13–1154%
Clay13–1350%23–1462%
Grass4–450%2–250%

Head to head

D. Altmaier 1–4 J. Cerúndolo

  • 25/10/26Winner: J. Cerúndolo6:7 3:6
  • 23/04/26Winner: J. Cerúndolo4:6 4:6
  • 10/02/26Winner: J. Cerúndolo2:6 2:6
  • 04/09/21Winner: J. Cerúndolo4:6 0:3
  • 16/02/21Winner: D. Altmaier4:6 6:2 6:1

Road through the tournament

Daniel Altmaier

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo

See also