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ATP ParisMasters 1000Qualifying round 2hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Báez vs Macháč 0:2: result and our tips

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Sebastián BáezATP #49Elo 1883hard 1831
0:2final2:6 4:6
Tomáš MacháčATP #71Elo 1964hard 1943

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Lost72%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Baez: 10 matches in a row over 18.5 games

Other tips

  • Tie-break in Match: NoWon65%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No tie-break in recent matches: Baez 15 of 20, Machac 13 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 22.5Lost39%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 22.5 games in recent matches: Baez 12 of 20, Machac 10 of 20 (tour average 45%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Sebastián Báez18%
Tomáš Macháč82%

Elo: S. Báez 34% · T. Macháč 66%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Báez10%
2:1 S. Báez9%
2:1 T. Macháč21%
2:0 T. Macháč60%

First set

Sebastián Báez25%
Tomáš Macháč75%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes30%
no70%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.579%21%84%
18.571%29%76%
19.561%39%67%
20.553%47%59%
21.547%53%54%
22.539%62%45%
23.533%67%39%

Sample: 2,639 matches

Games handicap

T. Macháč −4.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes34%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 20.5out · 18 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Sebastián BáezTomáš Macháč
2Aces8
4Double faults1
74%First serves in75%
65%First-serve points won83%
25%Second-serve points won58%
0/0Break points converted3/12
6/9Service games held9/9
55%Service points won77%
23%Return points won46%
53Total points won71

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. BáezTourT. Macháč
Service points won61%62%62%
Return points won39%38%37%
Service games held73%76%78%
Breaks of serve26%24%22%
Aces per service game0.180.40
Double faults per game0.180.19
Sets with a tie-break10%15%
Tie-breaks won8/1410/16
Wins in straight sets75%57%
Matches in the sample6140

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Sebastián Báez

Tomáš Macháč

Elo over the last year

Sebastián BáezTomáš Macháč

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. BáezT. Macháč
Hard court15–1452%15–1452%
Clay17–1455%6–555%
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

S. Báez 0–2 T. Macháč

  • 14/04/26Winner: T. Macháč6:2 4:6 1:6
  • 08/04/25Winner: T. Macháč6:3 3:6 2:6

Road through the tournament

Sebastián Báez

Tomáš Macháč