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Challenger Bratislava 2Challenger 125Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Brunold vs Vrbensky 2:1: result and our tips

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Mika BrunoldATP #184Elo 1844hard 1813
2:1final1:6 7:6(2) 6:1
Michael VrbenskyATP #687Elo 1495hard 1521

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Set Betting: Brunold 2-0Lost65%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Brunold won 2-0 in 11 of the last 20 matches, Vrbensky lost 0-2 in 9 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 18.5Won60%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 63% → with the players' profiles 60%

    Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Brunold 16 of 20, Vrbensky 16 of 20 (tour average 71%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 21.5Won38%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Brunold 13 of 20, Vrbensky 11 of 20 (tour average 49%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mika Brunold85%
Michael Vrbensky15%

Elo: M. Brunold 84% · M. Vrbensky 16%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Brunold65%
2:1 M. Brunold20%
2:1 M. Vrbensky7%
2:0 M. Vrbensky8%

First set

Mika Brunold78%
Michael Vrbensky22%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes27%
no73%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.0 · 49%market (no margin): 49%

The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.580%20%88%
17.570%30%79%
18.560%40%71%
19.551%49%62%
20.544%56%54%
21.538%62%49%
22.532%68%42%

Sample: 2,160 matches

Games handicap

M. Brunold −5.544%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 20.0out · 27 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Mika BrunoldMichael Vrbensky
—Aces—
—Double faults—
—First serves in—
—First-serve points won—
—Second-serve points won—
0/0Break points converted0/0
0/0Service games held0/0
—Service points won—
—Return points won—
0Total points won0

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. BrunoldTourM. Vrbensky
Service points won63%62%59%
Return points won40%38%38%
Service games held78%76%71%
Breaks of serve28%24%24%
Aces per service game0.260.38
Double faults per game0.190.33
Sets with a tie-break18%17%
Tie-breaks won15/215/13
Wins in straight sets61%57%
Matches in the sample4934

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mika Brunold

Michael Vrbensky

Elo over the last year

Mika BrunoldMichael Vrbensky

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. BrunoldM. Vrbensky
Hard court9–564%8–657%
Clay24–1169%6–1430%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Mika Brunold

First match in this tournament.

Michael Vrbensky