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Challenger Bratislava 2Challenger 125Qualifying round 2hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Houkes vs Vrbensky 0:2: result and our tips

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Max HoukesATP #216Elo 1678hard 1555
0:2final4:6 4:6
Michael VrbenskyATP #687Elo 1468hard 1498

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: HoukesLost61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Houkes: 3 matches in a row winning the first set

Long shot
Total Games: Over 23.5Lost40%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Houkes: 3 matches in a row over 23.5 games; Over 23.5 games in recent matches: Houkes 8 of 20, Vrbensky 11 of 20 (tour average 37%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Max Houkes66%
Michael Vrbensky34%

Elo: M. Houkes 58% · M. Vrbensky 42%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Houkes43%
2:1 M. Houkes22%
2:1 M. Vrbensky15%
2:0 M. Vrbensky20%

First set

Max Houkes61%
Michael Vrbensky39%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 56%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%28%71%
19.564%36%62%
20.557%43%54%
21.551%49%49%
22.545%55%42%
23.540%60%37%
24.537%63%35%

Sample: 5,541 matches

Games handicap

M. Houkes −3.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes31%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 20 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Max HoukesMichael Vrbensky
2Aces6
2Double faults0
63%First serves in54%
70%First-serve points won83%
50%Second-serve points won69%
0/2Break points converted2/5
8/10Service games held10/10
63%Service points won77%
23%Return points won37%
50Total points won65

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. HoukesTourM. Vrbensky
Service points won62%62%59%
Return points won39%38%39%
Service games held73%76%71%
Breaks of serve26%24%24%
Aces per service game0.370.37
Double faults per game0.220.34
Sets with a tie-break18%17%
Tie-breaks won7/155/13
Wins in straight sets59%57%
Matches in the sample3634

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Max Houkes

Michael Vrbensky

  • 01/11/26WMarek Gengel#410Challenger Bratislava 2 · Q17:5 7:5
  • 14/10/26LLorenzo Giustino#272Challenger Maia · R165:7 5:7
  • 13/10/26WRaul Brancaccio#221Challenger Maia · R326:3 6:1
  • 12/10/26WPatrick Schoen#342Challenger Maia · Q26:3 6:4
  • 11/10/26WOlle Wallin#416Challenger Maia · Q14:3
  • 14/09/26LKai Wehnelt#643Challenger Szczecin · Q25:7 2:6
  • 16/08/26LOleksii Krutykh#442Challenger Prague · Q16:2 2:6 4:6
  • 28/07/26LNikoloz Basilashvili#87Challenger San Marino · R323:6 6:3 2:6
  • 27/07/26WMaxime Janvier#605Challenger San Marino · Q26:3 5:7 6:3
  • 19/07/26LPatrik Niklas-SalminenChallenger Tampere · Q16:7 7:6 4:6

Elo over the last year

Max HoukesMichael Vrbensky

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. HoukesM. Vrbensky
Hard court2–250%8–657%
Clay15–1550%6–1430%
Grass0–20%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Max Houkes

Michael Vrbensky

Upcoming matches

See also