Challenger BragaChallenger 75Semifinalclaybest of three sets

Dodig vs Neumayer 2:0: result and our tips

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Matej DodigATP #174Elo 1852clay 1851
2:0final6:3 6:1
Lukas NeumayerATP #180Elo 1807clay 1812

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: DodigWon56%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Dodig won the first set in 14 of the last 20 matches, Neumayer lost the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Long shot
Set Betting: Dodig 2-0Won37%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Dodig won 2-0 in 10 of the last 20 matches, Neumayer lost 0-2 in 8 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Matej Dodig57%
Lukas Neumayer43%

Elo: M. Dodig 56% · L. Neumayer 44%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Dodig37%
2:1 M. Dodig21%
2:1 L. Neumayer18%
2:0 L. Neumayer24%

First set

Matej Dodig56%
Lukas Neumayer44%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 54%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.575%25%68%
19.567%33%59%
20.559%41%52%
21.553%47%47%
22.546%54%40%
23.542%58%36%
24.540%61%34%

Sample: 4,781 matches

Games handicap

Matej Dodig −2.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes32%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Matej DodigLukas Neumayer
5Aces1
1Double faults2
67%First serves in58%
81%First-serve points won52%
60%Second-serve points won43%
4/9Break points converted0/0
8/8Service games held4/8
74%Service points won48%
52%Return points won26%
60Total points won36

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. DodigTourL. Neumayer
Service points won65%62%62%
Return points won37%38%41%
Service games held82%76%78%
Breaks of serve22%24%31%
Aces per service game0.550.26
Double faults per game0.180.19
Sets with a tie-break18%14%
Tie-breaks won16/289/21
Wins in straight sets52%66%
Matches in the sample6866

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Matej Dodig

Lukas Neumayer

Elo over the last year

Matej DodigLukas Neumayer

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. DodigL. Neumayer
Hard court15–1256%7–847%
Clay28–1172%34–1668%
Grass1–150%0–10%

Head to head

M. Dodig 1–0 L. Neumayer

  • 11/07/25Winner: Matej Dodig7:6 6:2

Road through the tournament

Matej Dodig

Lukas Neumayer

See also