ATP Brussels250Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Fearnley vs Gaston 2:0: result and our tips

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Jacob FearnleyATP #87Elo 1935hard 1888
2:0final6:3 6:0
Hugo GastonATP #93Elo 1830hard 1811

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 24.5Won59%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fearnley: 6 matches in a row under 24.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Won61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Fearnley: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set

  • Tie-break in Match: NoWon63%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 63%

    No tie-break in recent matches: Fearnley 13 of 20, Gaston 16 of 20 (tour average 61%)

Long shot
Set Betting: Fearnley 2-0Won38%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fearnley won 2-0 in 12 of the last 20 matches, Gaston lost 0-2 in 5 of the last 20 matches (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jacob Fearnley61%
Hugo Gaston39%

Elo: J. Fearnley 61% · H. Gaston 39%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Fearnley38%
2:1 J. Fearnley22%
2:1 H. Gaston18%
2:0 H. Gaston23%

First set

Jacob Fearnley57%
Hugo Gaston43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 52%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%68%
20.562%38%60%
21.556%44%54%
22.548%52%46%
23.543%57%40%
24.541%59%38%
25.537%63%35%

Sample: 5,845 matches

Games handicap

Jacob Fearnley −2.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 15 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Jacob FearnleyHugo Gaston
2Aces0
1Double faults1
64%First serves in59%
76%First-serve points won52%
63%Second-serve points won44%
4/9Break points converted0/3
8/8Service games held3/7
71%Service points won48%
52%Return points won29%
66Total points won42

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. FearnleyTourH. Gaston
Service points won62%62%61%
Return points won40%38%40%
Service games held76%76%74%
Breaks of serve28%24%28%
Aces per service game0.400.25
Double faults per game0.460.19
Sets with a tie-break21%12%
Tie-breaks won14/3311/19
Wins in straight sets60%56%
Matches in the sample6368

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jacob Fearnley

Hugo Gaston

Elo over the last year

Jacob FearnleyHugo Gaston

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. FearnleyH. Gaston
Hard court22–2151%24–1562%
Clay2–340%12–1250%
Grass11–473%3–260%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

See also