WTA NingboWTA 500Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying
Fernandez vs Alexandrova: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 1hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Leylah Fernandez44%
Ekaterina Alexandrova56%
Elo: L. Fernandez 53% · E. Alexandrova 48%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 L. Fernandez29%
2:1 L. Fernandez18%
2:1 E. Alexandrova20%
2:0 E. Alexandrova33%
First set
Leylah Fernandez48%
Ekaterina Alexandrova52%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 51%market (no margin): 49%
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 69% | 31% | 64% |
| 19.5 | 61% | 39% | 56% |
| 20.5 | 54% | 46% | 49% |
| 21.5 | 49% | 51% | 44% |
| 22.5 | 43% | 57% | 38% |
| 23.5 | 39% | 61% | 34% |
| 24.5 | 36% | 64% | 32% |
Sample: 2,406 matches
Games handicap
Ekaterina Alexandrova −1.549%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes25%
tour average 22%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Fernandez | Tour | E. Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 59% | 56% | 58% |
| Return points won | 42% | 44% | 42% |
| Service games held | 71% | 63% | 69% |
| Breaks of serve | 33% | 37% | 32% |
| Aces per service game | 0.23 | 0.40 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.42 | 0.41 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 12% | 13% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 3/16 | 5/15 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 61% | |
| Matches in the sample | 56 | 49 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Leylah Fernandez
- 21/10/26WAliaksandra Sasnovich#122WTA Ningbo · R167:5 6:7 6:3
- 19/10/26WElise Mertens#15WTA Ningbo · R322:6 6:3 7:5
- 15/10/26LJeļena Ostapenko#24WTA Wuhan · R161:6 6:1 4:6
- 14/10/26WHan Shi#177WTA Wuhan · R326:3 6:4
- 12/10/26WEkaterina Alexandrova#33WTA Wuhan · R646:4 3:6 6:3
- 03/10/26LKamilla Rakhimova#67WTA Beijing · R642:6 6:4 3:6
- 27/09/26WTalia Gibson#42WTA Singapore · F7:5 6:0
- 26/09/26WMaja Chwalińska#11WTA Singapore · SF1:6 6:4 6:2
- 25/09/26WMirra Andreeva#3WTA Singapore · QF6:2 7:5
- 23/09/26WAlycia Parks#64WTA Singapore · R166:4 6:3
Ekaterina Alexandrova
- 21/10/26WMarta Kostyuk#10WTA Ningbo · R166:4
- 20/10/26WHanyu Guo#189WTA Ningbo · R326:2 6:3
- 12/10/26LLeylah Fernandez#30WTA Wuhan · R644:6 6:3 3:6
- 08/10/26LMirra Andreeva#3WTA Beijing · QF6:7 6:7
- 06/10/26WLinda Nosková#8WTA Beijing · R166:2 6:2
- 04/10/26WDiana Shnaider#13WTA Beijing · R323:6 6:4 6:3
- 02/10/26WAliaksandra Sasnovich#122WTA Beijing · R646:1 6:4
- 04/09/26LMarta Kostyuk#10WTA US Open · R323:6 2:6
- 02/09/26WKimberly Birrell#41WTA US Open · R646:1 2:6 6:3
- 30/08/26WMcCartney Kessler#106WTA US Open · R1286:2 6:2
Elo over the last year
Leylah FernandezEkaterina Alexandrova
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Fernandez | E. Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 20–1656% | 17–1750% |
| Clay | 8–753% | 1–517% |
| Grass | 1–420% | 5–456% |
Head to head
L. Fernandez 2–3 E. Alexandrova
- 12/10/26Winner: Leylah Fernandez6:4 3:6 6:3
- 06/01/25Winner: Ekaterina Alexandrova4:6 6:3 2:6
- 29/08/23Winner: Ekaterina Alexandrova6:7 7:5 4:6
- 15/08/22Winner: Ekaterina Alexandrova4:6 5:7
- 03/01/22Winner: Leylah Fernandez6:3 6:4
Road through the tournament
Leylah Fernandez
- 19/10/26WElise Mertens#15WTA Ningbo · R322:6 6:3 7:5
- 21/10/26WAliaksandra Sasnovich#122WTA Ningbo · R167:5 6:7 6:3
Ekaterina Alexandrova
- 20/10/26WHanyu Guo#189WTA Ningbo · R326:2 6:3
- 21/10/26WMarta Kostyuk#10WTA Ningbo · R166:4