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Challenger CharlottesvilleChallenger 75Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Galarneau vs Milavsky 0:2: result and our tips

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Alexis GalarneauATP #195Elo 1732hard 1700
0:2final6:7(3) 3:6
Daniel MilavskyATP #307Elo 1699hard 1677

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Galarneau 11 of 20, Milavsky 15 of 20 (tour average 54%); Milavsky: 4 matches in a row over 20.5 games

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesWon36%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

A tie-break in recent matches: Galarneau 8 of 20, Milavsky 10 of 20 (tour average 32%); Milavsky: 3 matches in a row with a tie-break

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alexis Galarneau50%
Daniel Milavsky51%

Elo: A. Galarneau 53% · D. Milavsky 47%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Galarneau30%
2:1 A. Galarneau19%
2:1 D. Milavsky19%
2:0 D. Milavsky31%

First set

Alexis Galarneau50%
Daniel Milavsky51%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%62%
20.560%40%54%
21.554%46%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.542%58%37%
24.541%60%35%
25.536%64%32%

Sample: 5,314 matches

Games handicap

D. Milavsky −0.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes36%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 22 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Alexis GalarneauDaniel Milavsky
5Aces10
5Double faults3
55%First serves in71%
70%First-serve points won82%
50%Second-serve points won56%
1/3Break points converted2/9
8/10Service games held10/11
61%Service points won74%
26%Return points won39%
57Total points won72

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. GalarneauTourD. Milavsky
Service points won62%62%63%
Return points won38%38%39%
Service games held76%76%78%
Breaks of serve24%24%24%
Aces per service game0.320.53
Double faults per game0.340.31
Sets with a tie-break17%16%
Tie-breaks won16/2710/18
Wins in straight sets62%63%
Matches in the sample6747

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alexis Galarneau

  • 27/10/26LMees Rottgering#295Challenger Sioux Falls · R323:6 4:6
  • 05/10/26LRoman Safiullin#71ATP Shanghai · Q13:6 0:6
  • 30/09/26LLloyd Harris#103Challenger Jingshan · R322:6 3:6
  • 23/09/26LLloyd Harris#103ATP Chengdu · Q23:6 5:7
  • 22/09/26WElias Ymer#245ATP Chengdu · Q17:5 7:6
  • 15/09/26LFajing Sun#287Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R325:7 6:3 5:7
  • 11/09/26LPavel Kotov#170Challenger Shanghai · QF6:3 1:6 1:6
  • 09/09/26WLinang XiaoChallenger Shanghai · R166:3 6:4
  • 07/09/26WSemen Pankin#424Challenger Shanghai · R327:6 6:4
  • 26/08/26LDalibor Svrcina#119ATP US Open · Q26:7 2:6

Daniel Milavsky

Elo over the last year

Alexis GalarneauDaniel Milavsky

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. GalarneauD. Milavsky
Hard court24–2252%23–1856%
Clay5–363%0–10%
Grass8–562%4–180%

Head to head

A. Galarneau 2–0 D. Milavsky

  • 10/07/26Winner: A. Galarneau6:3 6:2
  • 13/02/26Winner: A. Galarneau6:4 6:4

Road through the tournament

Alexis Galarneau

First match in this tournament.

Daniel Milavsky