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Challenger CharlottesvilleChallenger 75Qualifying round 2hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Milavsky vs Mitsui 2:0: result and our tips

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Daniel MilavskyATP #307Elo 1685hard 1661
2:0final7:6(6) 7:6(4)
Shunsuke MitsuiATP #589Elo 1549hard 1547

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Won63%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Mitsui: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Lost42%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Mitsui: 5 matches in a row under 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Daniel Milavsky66%
Shunsuke Mitsui34%

Elo: D. Milavsky 66% · S. Mitsui 34%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 D. Milavsky43%
2:1 D. Milavsky22%
2:1 S. Mitsui15%
2:0 S. Mitsui20%

First set

Daniel Milavsky61%
Shunsuke Mitsui39%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 54%market (no margin): 52%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.567%33%62%
20.558%42%54%
21.554%46%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.538%62%35%
25.535%65%32%

Sample: 5,543 matches

Games handicap

D. Milavsky −3.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes35%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 21.5in · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Daniel MilavskyShunsuke Mitsui
4Aces2
2Double faults3
56%First serves in58%
73%First-serve points won54%
40%Second-serve points won50%
4/13Break points converted4/10
8/12Service games held8/12
58%Service points won52%
48%Return points won42%
105Total points won95

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

D. MilavskyTourS. Mitsui
Service points won63%62%63%
Return points won38%38%40%
Service games held79%76%77%
Breaks of serve24%24%28%
Aces per service game0.530.31
Double faults per game0.310.24
Sets with a tie-break15%21%
Tie-breaks won8/164/9
Wins in straight sets62%55%
Matches in the sample4619

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Daniel Milavsky

Shunsuke Mitsui

  • 01/11/26WGeoffrey Blancaneaux#443Challenger Charlottesville · Q16:4 6:2
  • 18/10/26LPatrick Zahraj#540Challenger Fort Worth · Q13:6 4:6
  • 28/09/26LOliver Okonkwo#964Challenger Columbus · Q24:6 1:6
  • 27/09/26WRyan Colby#648Challenger Columbus · Q16:0 6:2
  • 20/09/26LOzan Baris#397Challenger San Diego 2 · Q11:6 2:6
  • 10/08/26LSidharth Rawat#644Challenger Astana · Q25:7 6:7
  • 09/08/26WPawit Sornlaksup#731Challenger Astana · Q17:6 1:6 6:4
  • 22/03/26LTakuya Kumasaka#661Challenger Yokkaichi · Q14:6 0:1
  • 03/02/26LDane Sweeny#114Challenger Brisbane · R322:3
  • 02/02/26WColin Sinclair#485Challenger Brisbane · Q27:6 6:7 6:4

Elo over the last year

Daniel MilavskyShunsuke Mitsui

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

D. MilavskyS. Mitsui
Hard court22–1855%11–858%
Clay0–10%0–0
Grass4–180%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Daniel Milavsky

Shunsuke Mitsui