Challenger MaiaChallenger 125Round of 16claybest of three sets
Giustino vs Vrbensky: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 6h 30mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Lorenzo Giustino73%
Michael Vrbensky27%
Elo: L. Giustino 83% · M. Vrbensky 17%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 L. Giustino49%
2:1 L. Giustino23%
2:1 M. Vrbensky13%
2:0 M. Vrbensky15%
First set
Lorenzo Giustino67%
Michael Vrbensky34%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 54%market (no margin): 49%
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.2
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 77% | 23% | 76% |
| 18.5 | 68% | 32% | 68% |
| 19.5 | 59% | 41% | 59% |
| 20.5 | 53% | 48% | 52% |
| 21.5 | 47% | 53% | 47% |
| 22.5 | 41% | 60% | 40% |
| 23.5 | 37% | 63% | 36% |
Sample: 3,476 matches
Games handicap
Lorenzo Giustino −4.545%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes25%
tour average 27%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Giustino | Tour | M. Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 59% |
| Return points won | 39% | 38% | 39% |
| Service games held | 76% | 76% | 71% |
| Breaks of serve | 26% | 24% | 25% |
| Aces per service game | 0.36 | 0.36 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.28 | 0.36 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 19% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 17/27 | 6/15 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 62% | 60% | |
| Matches in the sample | 69 | 35 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Lorenzo Giustino
- 13/10/26WAndrea Pellegrino#145Challenger Maia · R326:4 2:6 6:1
- 08/10/26LCarlos Sanchez Jover#335Challenger Palermo · R166:2 2:6 3:6
- 06/10/26WChristian Langmo#534Challenger Palermo · R326:4 6:1
- 01/10/26LM. W. Donald#418Challenger Bari · R167:6 3:6 1:3
- 29/09/26WJohn Sperle#667Challenger Bari · R327:5 6:7 6:4
- 25/08/26LGrigor Dimitrov#127ATP US Open · Q10:6 3:6
- 21/08/26LBenjamin Hassan#500Challenger Sion · SF6:3 2:3
- 20/08/26WDimitar Kuzmanov#367Challenger Sion · QF6:3 5:7 6:1
- 19/08/26WHenry Bernet#371Challenger Sion · R166:4 3:6 7:6
- 18/08/26WThiago Cigarran#622Challenger Sion · R326:4 6:3
Michael Vrbensky
- 13/10/26WRaul Brancaccio#231Challenger Maia · R326:3 6:1
- 12/10/26WPatrick Schoen#368Challenger Maia · Q26:3 6:4
- 11/10/26WOlle Wallin#423Challenger Maia · Q14:3
- 14/09/26LKai Wehnelt#613Challenger Szczecin · Q25:7 2:6
- 16/08/26LOleksii Krutykh#456Challenger Prague · Q16:2 2:6 4:6
- 28/07/26LNikoloz Basilashvili#124Challenger San Marino · R323:6 6:3 2:6
- 27/07/26WMaxime Janvier#640Challenger San Marino · Q26:3 5:7 6:3
- 19/07/26LPatrik Niklas-SalminenChallenger Tampere · Q16:7 7:6 4:6
- 28/06/26LMaxime Janvier#640Challenger Brasov · Q16:7 6:4 3:6
- 14/06/26LMilos Karol#583Challenger Poznan · Q16:7 1:6
Elo over the last year
Lorenzo GiustinoMichael Vrbensky
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Giustino | M. Vrbensky | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 16–964% | 9–756% |
| Clay | 23–2053% | 6–1332% |
| Grass | 0–10% | 0–0 |
Head to head
L. Giustino 2–0 M. Vrbensky
- 09/01/24Winner: Lorenzo Giustino6:4 2:6 7:5
- 01/01/24Winner: Lorenzo Giustino7:5 4:6 6:4
Road through the tournament
Lorenzo Giustino
- 13/10/26WAndrea Pellegrino#145Challenger Maia · R326:4 2:6 6:1
Michael Vrbensky
- 11/10/26WOlle Wallin#423Challenger Maia · Q14:3
- 12/10/26WPatrick Schoen#368Challenger Maia · Q26:3 6:4
- 13/10/26WRaul Brancaccio#231Challenger Maia · R326:3 6:1