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Challenger CaliChallenger 75Semifinalclaybest of three sets

Heide vs Pucinelli de Almeida 0:2: result and our tips

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Gustavo HeideATP #113Elo 1823clay 1847
0:2final3:6 5:7
Matheus Pucinelli de AlmeidaATP #196Elo 1781clay 1794

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: NoWon75%

Where the number comes from: market alone 70% → with the players' profiles 75%

No tie-break in recent matches: Heide 19 of 20, Pucinelli de Almeida 16 of 20 (tour average 73%); Heide: 13 matches in a row without a tie-break

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: HeideLost58%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Heide: 5 matches in a row winning the first set

  • Total Games: Over 18.5Won70%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 74% → with the players' profiles 70%

    Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Heide 14 of 20, Pucinelli de Almeida 16 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost49%

Where the number comes from: market alone 52% → with the players' profiles 49%

Pucinelli de Almeida: 4 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Gustavo Heide59%
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida41%

Elo: G. Heide 58% · M. Pucinelli de Almeida 42%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 G. Heide38%
2:1 G. Heide22%
2:1 M. Pucinelli de Almeida17%
2:0 M. Pucinelli de Almeida23%

First set

Gustavo Heide58%
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida42%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 57%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.570%30%68%
19.562%39%59%
20.555%45%52%
21.549%51%47%
22.543%57%40%
23.540%60%36%
24.537%63%34%

Sample: 4,932 matches

Games handicap

G. Heide −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 21 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Gustavo HeideMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida
2Aces2
7Double faults4
49%First serves in67%
68%First-serve points won74%
57%Second-serve points won54%
0/6Break points converted2/8
8/10Service games held11/11
62%Service points won67%
33%Return points won38%
71Total points won83

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

G. HeideTourM. Pucinelli de Almeida
Service points won63%62%62%
Return points won41%38%44%
Service games held79%76%76%
Breaks of serve30%24%34%
Aces per service game0.380.20
Double faults per game0.430.25
Sets with a tie-break8%11%
Tie-breaks won9/135/14
Wins in straight sets77%65%
Matches in the sample7052

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Gustavo Heide

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida

Elo over the last year

Gustavo HeideMatheus Pucinelli de Almeida

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

G. HeideM. Pucinelli de Almeida
Hard court1–517%3–443%
Clay45–1773%31–1469%
Grass1–150%0–0

Head to head

G. Heide 1–0 M. Pucinelli de Almeida

  • 29/09/23Winner: G. Heide6:4 6:2

Road through the tournament

Gustavo Heide

Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida

See also