Challenger HelsinkiChallenger 175Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets
Ivashka vs Samuel: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Ilya Ivashka27%
Toby Samuel73%
Elo: I. Ivashka 36% · T. Samuel 64%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 I. Ivashka15%
2:1 I. Ivashka12%
2:1 T. Samuel22%
2:0 T. Samuel50%
First set
Ilya Ivashka33%
Toby Samuel67%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 57%market (no margin): 52%
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 72% | 28% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 63% | 37% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 56% | 44% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 43% | 57% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 37% | 63% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 35% | 65% | 35% |
Sample: 4,421 matches
Games handicap
T. Samuel −3.554%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes32%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| I. Ivashka | Tour | T. Samuel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 65% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 41% | 38% | 41% |
| Service games held | 82% | 76% | 79% |
| Breaks of serve | 29% | 24% | 32% |
| Aces per service game | 0.41 | 0.38 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.25 | 0.21 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 14% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/18 | 17/25 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 77% | |
| Matches in the sample | 46 | 74 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Ilya Ivashka
- 17/10/26LRoman Safiullin#74ATP Almaty · Q11:6 7:6 4:6
- 15/10/26LLiam Draxl#165Challenger Jinan · R164:6 6:0 4:6
- 14/10/26WMarat Sharipov#228Challenger Jinan · R323:4
- 12/10/26WKaichi Uchida#431Challenger Jinan · Q26:2 6:4
- 11/10/26WBeibit Zhukayev#520Challenger Jinan · Q16:0 6:4
- 13/09/26WMarat Sharipov#228Challenger Shanghai · F6:4 3:6 7:6
- 12/09/26WLuca Castelnuovo#434Challenger Shanghai · SF6:3 6:4
- 11/09/26WYi Zhou#279Challenger Shanghai · QF6:3 6:3
- 10/09/26WBernard Tomic#176Challenger Shanghai · R166:4 4:6 6:2
- 08/09/26WYu Hsiou Hsu#312Challenger Shanghai · R326:3 6:3
Toby Samuel
- 10/11/26LLorenzo Musetti#25ATP Stockholm · R161:6 4:6
- 09/11/26WLeo Borg#599ATP Stockholm · R326:3 6:2
- 08/11/26WAdrian Mannarino#61ATP Stockholm · Q23:6 7:5 6:1
- 07/11/26WKarl Friberg#816ATP Stockholm · Q17:6 6:2
- 05/11/26LJurij Rodionov#118Challenger Bratislava 2 · R163:6 4:6
- 04/11/26WLukas Pokorny#500Challenger Bratislava 2 · R327:6 7:6
- 29/10/26LClement Tabur#186Challenger Brest · R166:7 1:6
- 28/10/26WInaki Montes-de la Torre#194Challenger Brest · R326:4 6:3
- 20/10/26LZizou Bergs#44ATP Brussels · R323:6 6:7
- 07/10/26LHynek Barton#277Challenger Villena · R326:7 3:6
Elo over the last year
Ilya IvashkaToby Samuel
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| I. Ivashka | T. Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 30–1271% | 41–1277% |
| Clay | 2–250% | 7–558% |
| Grass | 0–0 | 5–550% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
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