Challenger MatsuyamaChallenger 75Qualifying round 1hardbest of three setsqualifying
Jones vs Katayama: prediction and tips
·
Maximus JonesATP #493Elo 1504hard 1504
-:-
Sho KatayamaElo 1399hard 1394
Our tips
Tip in 8h 12mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Maximus Jones68%
Sho Katayama32%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 M. Jones46%
2:1 M. Jones22%
2:1 S. Katayama14%
2:0 S. Katayama18%
First set
Maximus Jones63%
Sho Katayama37%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%
Total games
Expected total: 23.1
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 74% | 26% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 66% | 35% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 58% | 42% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 53% | 48% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 46% | 54% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 40% | 60% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 38% | 62% | 35% |
Sample: 5,192 matches
Games handicap
M. Jones −3.549%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes34%
tour average 32%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Jones | Tour | S. Katayama | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | — |
| Return points won | 38% | 38% | — |
| Service games held | 74% | 76% | — |
| Breaks of serve | 24% | 24% | — |
| Aces per service game | 0.43 | — | |
| Double faults per game | 0.27 | — | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 18% | — | |
| Tie-breaks won | 7/16 | — | |
| Wins in straight sets | 47% | — | |
| Matches in the sample | 36 | — |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Maximus Jones
- 19/10/26LYanaki Milev#527Challenger Florence · Q25:7 3:6
- 18/10/26WMartino GuidottiChallenger Florence · Q16:1 6:0
- 11/10/26LSebastian Gima#513Challenger Catania · Q12:6 6:3 3:6
- 09/09/26LHiroki Moriya#455Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R163:6 6:7
- 08/09/26WFlorent Bax#292Challenger Phan Thiet 3 · R326:0 3:6 7:6
- 02/09/26LIvan Ivanov#465Challenger Manacor · R320:6 4:6
- 01/09/26WOskari Paldanius#624Challenger Manacor · Q26:3 6:4
- 31/08/26WAlastair Gray#270Challenger Manacor · Q16:2 7:5
- 14/07/26LIlya Ivashka#223Challenger Pozoblanco · R322:6 1:3
- 19/05/26LSasikumar Mukund#745Challenger Bengaluru 3 · R326:7 6:7
Sho Katayama
- 03/11/25LMarc-Andrea Huesler#289Challenger Matsuyama · R324:6 6:7
- 04/11/24LTerence Atmane#73Challenger Matsuyama · R321:6 2:6
- 07/11/23LGeoffrey Blancaneaux#443Challenger Matsuyama · R320:6 4:6
- 08/11/22LYu Hsiou Hsu#304Challenger Matsuyama · R325:7 4:6
Elo over the last year
Maximus JonesSho Katayama
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Jones | S. Katayama | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 14–1942% | 0–0 |
| Clay | 1–233% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
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