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WTA WTA Tour FinalsFinalsRound robinhardbest of three sets

Kostyuk vs Gauff: prediction and tips

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Marta KostyukWTA #10Elo 2056hard 1987
-:-
Coco GauffWTA #4Elo 2187hard 2165

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: Gauff68%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Gauff won the first set in 4 of their 5 head-to-head matches; Kostyuk lost the first set in 8 of the last 20 matches, Gauff won the first set in 16 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: Gauff73%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 73%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Gauff won 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Marta Kostyuk27%
Coco Gauff73%

Elo: M. Kostyuk 26% · C. Gauff 74%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Kostyuk15%
2:1 M. Kostyuk13%
2:1 C. Gauff21%
2:0 C. Gauff51%

First set

Marta Kostyuk32%
Coco Gauff68%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.574%26%72%
18.566%34%64%
19.558%42%56%
20.551%49%49%
21.545%55%44%
22.539%61%38%
23.535%65%34%

Sample: 1,821 matches

Games handicap

C. Gauff −4.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 22%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. KostyukTourC. Gauff
Service points won60%56%59%
Return points won46%44%47%
Service games held73%63%70%
Breaks of serve41%37%42%
Aces per service game0.360.27
Double faults per game0.400.48
Sets with a tie-break9%9%
Tie-breaks won4/109/14
Wins in straight sets71%58%
Matches in the sample4960

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Marta Kostyuk

Coco Gauff

Elo over the last year

Marta KostyukCoco Gauff

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. KostyukC. Gauff
Hard court14–1254%30–977%
Clay16–194%10–471%
Grass5–183%5–271%

Head to head

M. Kostyuk 2–3 C. Gauff

  • 22/08/26Winner: C. Gauff2:6 2:6
  • 11/02/25Winner: M. Kostyuk6:2 7:5
  • 10/10/24Winner: C. Gauff4:6 1:6
  • 19/04/24Winner: M. Kostyuk3:6 6:4 7:6
  • 23/01/24Winner: C. Gauff6:7 7:6 2:6

Road through the tournament

Marta Kostyuk

Coco Gauff

Upcoming matches

See also