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WTA WTA Tour FinalsFinalsRound robinhardbest of three sets

Kostyuk vs Pegula: prediction and tips

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Marta KostyukWTA #10Elo 2065hard 1996
-:-
Jessica PegulaWTA #5Elo 2158hard 2139

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Tie-break in Match: No75%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Kostyuk: 13 matches in a row without a tie-break; No tie-break in recent matches: Kostyuk 18 of 20, Pegula 17 of 20 (tour average 78%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 18.569%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Pegula: 6 matches in a row over 18.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Under 18.531%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 18.5 games in 4 of their 6 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.

Winner

Marta Kostyuk37%
Jessica Pegula63%

Elo: M. Kostyuk 31% · J. Pegula 70%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Kostyuk23%
2:1 M. Kostyuk16%
2:1 J. Pegula22%
2:0 J. Pegula40%

First set

Marta Kostyuk42%
Jessica Pegula58%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 51%market (no margin): 49%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%64%
19.561%39%56%
20.554%46%49%
21.549%51%44%
22.542%58%38%
23.538%62%34%
24.536%64%32%

Sample: 2,423 matches

Games handicap

J. Pegula −2.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 23%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. KostyukTourJ. Pegula
Service points won61%56%61%
Return points won46%44%45%
Service games held73%63%75%
Breaks of serve42%37%37%
Aces per service game0.360.37
Double faults per game0.390.18
Sets with a tie-break9%9%
Tie-breaks won4/1010/14
Wins in straight sets71%60%
Matches in the sample4865

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Marta Kostyuk

Jessica Pegula

Elo over the last year

Marta KostyukJessica Pegula

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. KostyukJ. Pegula
Hard court14–1156%34–1077%
Clay16–194%9–375%
Grass5–183%7–278%

Head to head

M. Kostyuk 2–4 J. Pegula

  • 26/04/26Winner: M. Kostyuk6:1 6:4
  • 10/01/26Winner: M. Kostyuk6:0 6:3
  • 01/10/25Winner: J. Pegula3:6 7:6 1:6
  • 24/03/25Winner: J. Pegula2:6 3:6
  • 20/01/23Winner: J. Pegula0:6 2:6
  • 17/08/22Winner: J. Pegula7:6 1:6 2:6

Road through the tournament

Marta Kostyuk

Jessica Pegula

Upcoming matches

See also