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Challenger CharlottesvilleChallenger 75Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Kozlov vs Martin 2:0: result and our tips

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Stefan KozlovATP #271Elo 1603hard 1585
2:0final6:4 6:0
Andres MartinATP #359Elo 1567hard 1569

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Lost64%

Where the number comes from: market alone 68% → with the players' profiles 64%

Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Kozlov 14 of 20, Martin 16 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Other tips

  • Tie-break in Match: NoWon70%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 70%

    No tie-break in recent matches: Kozlov 17 of 20, Martin 13 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Lost39%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Kozlov 10 of 20, Martin 10 of 20 (tour average 35%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Stefan Kozlov53%
Andres Martin47%

Elo: S. Kozlov 52% · A. Martin 48%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Kozlov34%
2:1 S. Kozlov20%
2:1 A. Martin18%
2:0 A. Martin28%

First set

Stefan Kozlov53%
Andres Martin47%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 49%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%28%71%
19.564%36%62%
20.558%43%54%
21.551%49%49%
22.545%55%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.539%61%35%

Sample: 5,517 matches

Games handicap

S. Kozlov −1.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes30%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 22.0in · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Stefan KozlovAndres Martin
—Aces—
4Double faults0
54%First serves in59%
74%First-serve points won48%
65%Second-serve points won30%
5/8Break points converted1/2
7/8Service games held3/8
70%Service points won41%
59%Return points won30%
59Total points won33

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. KozlovTourA. Martin
Service points won61%62%61%
Return points won42%38%39%
Service games held73%76%75%
Breaks of serve30%24%24%
Aces per service game0.240.30
Double faults per game0.300.23
Sets with a tie-break11%16%
Tie-breaks won7/1610/20
Wins in straight sets50%57%
Matches in the sample5953

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Stefan Kozlov

Andres Martin

Elo over the last year

Stefan KozlovAndres Martin

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. KozlovA. Martin
Hard court22–2052%21–2348%
Clay7–654%2–625%
Grass3–175%0–10%

Head to head

S. Kozlov 0–1 A. Martin

  • 24/03/26Winner: A. Martin2:6 2:6

Road through the tournament

Stefan Kozlov

First match in this tournament.

Andres Martin