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Challenger Villa MariaChallenger 50Round of 32claybest of three sets

La Serna vs Del Pino 2:1: result and our tips

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Juan Manuel La SernaATP #254Elo 1646clay 1653
2:1final4:6 6:0 7:5
Mateo Del PinoElo 1409clay 1417

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 14.5Won63%

Where the number comes from: market alone 82% → with the players' profiles 63%

Over 14.5 games in recent matches: La Serna 20 of 20, Del Pino 12 of 12 (tour average 96%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 16.5Won41%

Where the number comes from: market alone 56% → with the players' profiles 41%

Over 16.5 games in recent matches: La Serna 19 of 20, Del Pino 10 of 12 (tour average 84%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Juan Manuel La Serna95%
Mateo Del Pino5%

Elo: J. La Serna 80% · M. Del Pino 21%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. La Serna83%
2:1 J. La Serna12%
2:1 M. Del Pino3%
2:0 M. Del Pino2%

First set

Juan Manuel La Serna91%
Mateo Del Pino10%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes15%
no85%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 17.5 · 66%market (no margin): 49%

The 17.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 17.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
12.587%13%>99%
13.576%24%98%
14.563%37%96%
15.551%49%91%
16.541%59%84%
17.534%66%76%
18.527%73%68%

Sample: 1,211 matches

Games handicap

J. La Serna −7.545%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes6%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 17.5out · 28 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Juan Manuel La SernaMateo Del Pino
—Aces—
2Double faults7
66%First serves in80%
60%First-serve points won54%
51%Second-serve points won33%
7/15Break points converted4/12
10/14Service games held7/14
57%Service points won50%
50%Return points won43%
102Total points won88

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. La SernaTourM. Del Pino
Service points won59%62%55%
Return points won44%38%43%
Service games held71%76%60%
Breaks of serve35%24%32%
Aces per service game0.190.15
Double faults per game0.260.29
Sets with a tie-break8%7%
Tie-breaks won6/131/2
Wins in straight sets49%40%
Matches in the sample6513

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Juan Manuel La Serna

Mateo Del Pino

Elo over the last year

Juan Manuel La SernaMateo Del Pino

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. La SernaM. Del Pino
Hard court2–167%0–0
Clay39–2363%5–838%

Head to head

J. La Serna 1–0 M. Del Pino

  • 01/02/26Winner: J. La Serna6:4 7:5

Road through the tournament

Juan Manuel La Serna

First match in this tournament.

Mateo Del Pino

See also