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Challenger CaliChallenger 75Semifinalclaybest of three sets

Meligeni Alves vs Aboian 1:2: result and our tips

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Felipe Meligeni AlvesATP #344Elo 1712clay 1732
1:2final6:3 3:6 5:7
Valerio AboianATP #283Elo 1658clay 1662

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: Meligeni AlvesWon71%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Meligeni Alves: 5 matches in a row winning the first set; Meligeni Alves won the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches, Aboian lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: Meligeni AlvesLost78%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 78%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Meligeni Alves: 5 wins in a row; Meligeni Alves won 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Under 18.5Lost39%

Where the number comes from: market alone 33% → with the players' profiles 39%

Under 18.5 games in recent matches: Meligeni Alves 12 of 20, Aboian 6 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Felipe Meligeni Alves77%
Valerio Aboian23%

Elo: F. Meligeni Alves 60% · V. Aboian 40%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Meligeni Alves54%
2:1 F. Meligeni Alves22%
2:1 V. Aboian11%
2:0 V. Aboian13%

First set

Felipe Meligeni Alves70%
Valerio Aboian30%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 52%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.572%28%76%
18.562%38%68%
19.554%46%59%
20.548%52%52%
21.542%58%47%
22.537%63%40%
23.534%66%36%

Sample: 2,925 matches

Games handicap

F. Meligeni Alves −4.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes21%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.0out · 30 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Felipe Meligeni AlvesValerio Aboian
3Aces7
1Double faults2
59%First serves in52%
74%First-serve points won77%
54%Second-serve points won60%
2/8Break points converted3/7
12/15Service games held13/15
66%Service points won69%
31%Return points won34%
86Total points won88

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. Meligeni AlvesTourV. Aboian
Service points won62%62%59%
Return points won40%38%42%
Service games held77%76%70%
Breaks of serve27%24%32%
Aces per service game0.320.43
Double faults per game0.150.20
Sets with a tie-break13%9%
Tie-breaks won6/115/12
Wins in straight sets71%42%
Matches in the sample3956

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Valerio Aboian

Elo over the last year

Felipe Meligeni AlvesValerio Aboian

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. Meligeni AlvesV. Aboian
Hard court2–340%0–0
Clay19–1458%33–2359%
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

F. Meligeni Alves 1–0 V. Aboian

  • 02/07/26Winner: F. Meligeni Alves6:2 6:4

Road through the tournament

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Valerio Aboian

See also