Challenger JinanChallenger 175Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying
Mochizuki vs Watanuki: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 13h 22mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from Elo (no market). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki52%
Yosuke Watanuki48%
Elo: S. Mochizuki 52% · Y. Watanuki 48%
from Elo (no market)
Set score
2:0 S. Mochizuki33%
2:1 S. Mochizuki18%
2:1 Y. Watanuki18%
2:0 Y. Watanuki31%
First set
Shintaro Mochizuki51%
Yosuke Watanuki49%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%
Total games
Expected total: 22.4
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 68% | 32% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 60% | 40% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 54% | 46% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 48% | 52% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 41% | 59% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 38% | 62% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 35% | 65% | 35% |
Sample: 17,206 matches
Games handicap
Shintaro Mochizuki −0.550%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes27%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| S. Mochizuki | Tour | Y. Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 58% | 62% | 61% |
| Return points won | 40% | 38% | 39% |
| Service games held | 68% | 76% | 74% |
| Breaks of serve | 28% | 24% | 30% |
| Aces per service game | 0.30 | 0.66 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.40 | 0.26 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 13% | 13% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 13/20 | 6/9 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 75% | |
| Matches in the sample | 59 | 30 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Shintaro Mochizuki
- 15/10/26WDane Sweeny#112Challenger Jinan · R166:3 7:6
- 13/10/26WFacundo Diaz Acosta#69Challenger Jinan · R326:2 7:6
- 06/10/26LRoman Safiullin#79ATP Shanghai · Q22:6 3:6
- 05/10/26WTaro Daniel#177ATP Shanghai · Q12:6 6:2 6:2
- 28/09/26LJaime Faria#60ATP Tokyo · Q12:6 4:6
- 24/09/26LMartin Damm Jr#104ATP Chengdu · R321:6 4:6
- 23/09/26WPavel Kotov#187ATP Chengdu · Q27:5 6:3
- 22/09/26WLinang XiaoATP Chengdu · Q17:5 4:6 7:5
- 15/09/26LPavel Kotov#187Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R326:7 1:6
- 31/08/26LJakub Menšík#15ATP US Open · R1281:6 4:6 5:7
Yosuke Watanuki
- 15/10/26WMarin Cilic#80Challenger Jinan · R167:5 6:4
- 14/10/26WAndre Ilagan#194Challenger Jinan · R326:2 6:2
- 12/10/26WKaito UesugiChallenger Jinan · Q26:2 6:2
- 11/10/26WSemen Pankin#432Challenger Jinan · Q16:1 6:0
- 07/09/26LMarat Sharipov#234Challenger Shanghai · R327:6 5:7 2:6
- 02/09/26LChun Hsin Tseng#225Challenger Zhangjiagang · R165:7 3:6
- 31/08/26WSemen Pankin#432Challenger Zhangjiagang · R326:3 7:5
- 29/07/26LHayato Matsuoka#247Challenger Vancouver · R324:6 2:6
- 22/07/26LToby Samuel#100Challenger Winnipeg · R160:6 1:6
- 20/07/26WAndre Ilagan#194Challenger Winnipeg · R327:6 7:5
Elo over the last year
Shintaro MochizukiYosuke Watanuki
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| S. Mochizuki | Y. Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 18–2641% | 16–1062% |
| Clay | 0–30% | 0–40% |
| Grass | 8–467% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Shintaro Mochizuki
- 13/10/26WFacundo Diaz Acosta#69Challenger Jinan · R326:2 7:6
- 15/10/26WDane Sweeny#112Challenger Jinan · R166:3 7:6
Yosuke Watanuki
- 11/10/26WSemen Pankin#432Challenger Jinan · Q16:1 6:0
- 12/10/26WKaito UesugiChallenger Jinan · Q26:2 6:2
- 14/10/26WAndre Ilagan#194Challenger Jinan · R326:2 6:2
- 15/10/26WMarin Cilic#80Challenger Jinan · R167:5 6:4