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WTA TokyoWTA 500Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying

Rakhimova vs Joint 2:1: result and our tips

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Kamilla RakhimovaWTA #44Elo 1807hard 1794
2:1final7:5 5:7 6:1
Maya JointWTA #90Elo 1831hard 1819

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won69%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Rakhimova 15 of 20, Joint 16 of 20 (tour average 64%); Joint: 6 matches in a row over 18.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Won36%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Rakhimova 7 of 20, Joint 11 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Kamilla Rakhimova45%
Maya Joint55%

Elo: K. Rakhimova 47% · M. Joint 54%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 K. Rakhimova29%
2:1 K. Rakhimova18%
2:1 M. Joint20%
2:0 M. Joint33%

First set

Kamilla Rakhimova48%
Maya Joint52%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%64%
19.561%39%56%
20.554%46%49%
21.549%51%44%
22.543%57%38%
23.539%62%34%
24.536%64%32%

Sample: 2,433 matches

Games handicap

M. Joint −1.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 31 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Kamilla RakhimovaMaya Joint
1Aces5
6Double faults0
75%First serves in75%
66%First-serve points won62%
54%Second-serve points won39%
6/12Break points converted3/4
12/15Service games held10/16
63%Service points won56%
44%Return points won37%
104Total points won93

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

K. RakhimovaTourM. Joint
Service points won55%56%55%
Return points won46%44%44%
Service games held64%63%62%
Breaks of serve39%37%35%
Aces per service game0.150.17
Double faults per game0.440.31
Sets with a tie-break14%11%
Tie-breaks won9/227/13
Wins in straight sets53%44%
Matches in the sample6448

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Kamilla Rakhimova

Maya Joint

Elo over the last year

Kamilla RakhimovaMaya Joint

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

K. RakhimovaM. Joint
Hard court29–2158%21–1755%
Clay2–529%1–517%
Grass3–443%1–325%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Kamilla Rakhimova

Maya Joint

See also