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Challenger Sioux FallsChallenger 125Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Rottgering vs Mayo 0:2: result and our tips

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Mees RottgeringATP #295Elo 1825hard 1805
0:2final3:6 4:6
Aidan MayoATP #285Elo 1716hard 1710

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Won62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Rottgering: 11 matches in a row without a deciding set; No third set in recent matches: Rottgering 19 of 20, Mayo 12 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 25.5Won64%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Rottgering: 11 matches in a row under 25.5 games; Under 25.5 games in recent matches: Rottgering 19 of 20, Mayo 13 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mees Rottgering57%
Aidan Mayo43%

Elo: M. Rottgering 63% · A. Mayo 37%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Rottgering37%
2:1 M. Rottgering21%
2:1 A. Mayo17%
2:0 A. Mayo25%

First set

Mees Rottgering56%
Aidan Mayo44%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%62%
20.560%40%54%
21.555%45%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.542%58%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.536%64%32%

Sample: 5,916 matches

Games handicap

M. Rottgering −2.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes36%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 19 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Mees RottgeringAidan Mayo
1Aces10
2Double faults2
57%First serves in67%
69%First-serve points won80%
59%Second-serve points won48%
0/9Break points converted2/3
7/9Service games held10/10
65%Service points won70%
30%Return points won35%
54Total points won66

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. RottgeringTourA. Mayo
Service points won62%62%65%
Return points won41%38%39%
Service games held79%76%82%
Breaks of serve28%24%24%
Aces per service game0.370.56
Double faults per game0.310.37
Sets with a tie-break11%24%
Tie-breaks won5/711/29
Wins in straight sets84%68%
Matches in the sample3049

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mees Rottgering

Aidan Mayo

  • 28/10/26WMaks Kaśnikowski#211Challenger Sioux Falls · R166:2 6:7 7:5
  • 27/10/26WHynek Barton#277Challenger Sioux Falls · R326:2 6:3
  • 23/10/26LSander Jong#393Challenger Fort Worth · QF6:7 6:0 6:7
  • 22/10/26WKaylan Bigun#523Challenger Fort Worth · R161:6 6:0 7:5
  • 20/10/26WColton Smith#218Challenger Fort Worth · R326:4 2:6 7:6
  • 02/10/26LAbdullah Shelbayh#311Challenger Columbus · QF6:7 5:7
  • 01/10/26WColton Smith#218Challenger Columbus · R166:2 7:6
  • 30/09/26WNikita Samuel FilinChallenger Columbus · R326:4 6:4
  • 21/09/26LSebastian Gorzny#403Challenger San Diego 2 · Q23:6 4:6
  • 20/09/26WJordan LeeChallenger San Diego 2 · Q16:2 6:2

Elo over the last year

Mees RottgeringAidan Mayo

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. RottgeringA. Mayo
Hard court18–967%24–1759%
Clay0–04–357%
Grass1–233%0–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Mees Rottgering

Aidan Mayo