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WTA TokyoWTA 500Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Sasnovich vs Shnaider: prediction and tips

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Aliaksandra SasnovichWTA #112Elo 1816hard 1806
-:-awaiting result
Diana ShnaiderWTA #13Elo 2042hard 2018

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 22.563%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Sasnovich 16 of 20, Shnaider 15 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.567%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in recent matches: Sasnovich 16 of 20, Shnaider 16 of 20 (tour average 66%)

  • Match Winner: Shnaider77%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 77%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Shnaider won 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Aliaksandra Sasnovich23%
Diana Shnaider77%

Elo: A. Sasnovich 23% · D. Shnaider 77%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Sasnovich12%
2:1 A. Sasnovich12%
2:1 D. Shnaider21%
2:0 D. Shnaider55%

First set

Aliaksandra Sasnovich29%
Diana Shnaider71%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 52%market (no margin): 52%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.572%29%72%
18.563%37%64%
19.555%45%56%
20.548%52%49%
21.543%57%44%
22.537%63%38%
23.533%67%34%

Sample: 1,603 matches

Games handicap

D. Shnaider −4.553%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes21%

tour average 22%

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. SasnovichTourD. Shnaider
Service points won58%56%58%
Return points won46%44%45%
Service games held67%63%71%
Breaks of serve41%37%37%
Aces per service game0.270.13
Double faults per game0.320.30
Sets with a tie-break10%13%
Tie-breaks won4/149/17
Wins in straight sets76%74%
Matches in the sample6357

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Diana Shnaider

Elo over the last year

Aliaksandra SasnovichDiana Shnaider

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. SasnovichD. Shnaider
Hard court27–1761%24–1463%
Clay8–657%10–567%
Grass2–340%1–325%

Head to head

A. Sasnovich 0–1 D. Shnaider

  • 10/02/24Winner: D. Shnaider1:6 2:6

Road through the tournament

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Diana Shnaider

First match in this tournament.