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ATP ParisMasters 1000Qualifying round 2hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Tirante vs Bellucci 0:2: result and our tips

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Thiago Agustin TiranteATP #53Elo 1949hard 1878
0:2final4:6 4:6
Mattia BellucciATP #66Elo 1944hard 1918

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: BellucciWon59%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Bellucci: 8 matches in a row winning the first set; Tirante lost the first set in 9 of the last 20 matches, Bellucci won the first set in 16 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: BellucciWon63%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 63%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Bellucci won 8 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Games: Over 21.5Lost61%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 58% → with the players' profiles 61%

    Tirante: 4 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesLost48%

Where the number comes from: market alone 41% → with the players' profiles 48%

Bellucci: 3 matches in a row with a tie-break

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Thiago Agustin Tirante36%
Mattia Bellucci65%

Elo: T. Tirante 44% · M. Bellucci 56%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Tirante21%
2:1 T. Tirante16%
2:1 M. Bellucci22%
2:0 M. Bellucci41%

First set

Thiago Agustin Tirante40%
Mattia Bellucci60%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 46%market (no margin): 49%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.568%32%60%
21.561%39%54%
22.555%45%46%
23.546%54%40%
24.541%59%38%
25.539%61%35%
26.535%65%30%

Sample: 5,670 matches

Games handicap

M. Bellucci −2.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes48%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 23.0out · 20 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Thiago Agustin TiranteMattia Bellucci
13Aces9
3Double faults1
58%First serves in80%
80%First-serve points won75%
48%Second-serve points won75%
0/4Break points converted2/2
8/10Service games held10/10
67%Service points won75%
25%Return points won33%
55Total points won64

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. TiranteTourM. Bellucci
Service points won66%62%66%
Return points won36%38%37%
Service games held82%76%83%
Breaks of serve20%24%22%
Aces per service game0.700.58
Double faults per game0.220.25
Sets with a tie-break16%18%
Tie-breaks won12/2315/30
Wins in straight sets53%73%
Matches in the sample5670

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Mattia Bellucci

Elo over the last year

Thiago Agustin TiranteMattia Bellucci

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. TiranteM. Bellucci
Hard court16–1552%29–1862%
Clay15–768%7–750%
Grass1–233%5–456%

Head to head

T. Tirante 1–1 M. Bellucci

  • 30/01/26Winner: M. Bellucci4:6 4:6
  • 03/07/23Winner: T. Tirante6:3 7:6

Road through the tournament

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Mattia Bellucci

See also