Skip to content
Challenger BrestChallenger 125Quarterfinalhard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Travaglia vs Virtanen 0:2: result and our tips

·

Stefano TravagliaATP #159Elo 1734hard 1747
0:2final6:7(4) 4:6
Otto VirtanenATP #116Elo 1815hard 1791

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 19.5Won66%

Where the number comes from: market alone 62% → with the players' profiles 66%

Over 19.5 games in recent matches: Travaglia 17 of 20, Virtanen 16 of 20 (tour average 62%); Travaglia: 11 matches in a row over 19.5 games

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesWon37%

Where the number comes from: market alone 31% → with the players' profiles 37%

A tie-break in recent matches: Travaglia 9 of 20, Virtanen 10 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Stefano Travaglia24%
Otto Virtanen76%

Elo: S. Travaglia 44% · O. Virtanen 56%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Travaglia14%
2:1 S. Travaglia11%
2:1 O. Virtanen22%
2:0 O. Virtanen54%

First set

Stefano Travaglia30%
Otto Virtanen70%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 56%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.575%25%71%
19.566%34%62%
20.558%42%54%
21.550%50%49%
22.544%56%42%
23.538%62%37%
24.534%66%35%

Sample: 3,735 matches

Games handicap

O. Virtanen −4.546%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 23 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Stefano TravagliaOtto Virtanen
4Aces11
1Double faults1
53%First serves in70%
69%First-serve points won89%
65%Second-serve points won47%
0/0Break points converted1/4
10/11Service games held11/11
67%Service points won76%
24%Return points won33%
64Total points won72

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. TravagliaTourO. Virtanen
Service points won63%62%66%
Return points won40%38%36%
Service games held77%76%84%
Breaks of serve28%24%20%
Aces per service game0.520.83
Double faults per game0.210.27
Sets with a tie-break22%27%
Tie-breaks won11/3421/43
Wins in straight sets65%67%
Matches in the sample6663

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Stefano Travaglia

Otto Virtanen

Elo over the last year

Stefano TravagliaOtto Virtanen

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. TravagliaO. Virtanen
Hard court21–1068%18–1358%
Clay15–1845%7–1041%
Grass1–150%11–473%

Head to head

S. Travaglia 0–1 O. Virtanen

  • 30/01/26Winner: O. Virtanen4:6 5:7

Road through the tournament

Stefano Travaglia

Otto Virtanen

See also