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Challenger TaipeiChallenger 125Qualifying round 2hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Zhu vs Shimizu 0:2: result and our tips

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Evan ZhuATP #467Elo 1585hard 1581
0:2final1:6 3:6
Yuta ShimizuATP #405Elo 1648hard 1630

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Evan Zhu30%
Yuta Shimizu70%

Elo: E. Zhu 43% · Y. Shimizu 57%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 E. Zhu17%
2:1 E. Zhu13%
2:1 Y. Shimizu22%
2:0 Y. Shimizu48%

First set

Evan Zhu35%
Yuta Shimizu65%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 54%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.574%26%71%
19.566%34%62%
20.558%42%54%
21.552%48%49%
22.546%54%42%
23.539%61%37%
24.537%63%35%

Sample: 4,775 matches

Games handicap

Y. Shimizu −3.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes35%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 21.5out · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Evan ZhuYuta Shimizu
3Aces4
1Double faults0
66%First serves in68%
57%First-serve points won78%
32%Second-serve points won92%
0/3Break points converted4/9
4/8Service games held8/8
48%Service points won83%
18%Return points won52%
34Total points won62

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

E. ZhuTourY. Shimizu
Service points won63%62%63%
Return points won39%38%38%
Service games held79%76%78%
Breaks of serve26%24%23%
Aces per service game0.300.40
Double faults per game0.250.23
Sets with a tie-break15%21%
Tie-breaks won6/1515/25
Wins in straight sets60%63%
Matches in the sample4251

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Evan Zhu

  • 01/11/26WAkira Santillan#332Challenger Taipei · Q10:1
  • 25/10/26LYeonsu JeongChallenger Seoul · Q14:6 4:6
  • 19/10/26LMax Purcell#618Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q24:6 4:6
  • 18/10/26WYaojie Zeng#954Challenger Guangzhou Nansha · Q16:1 1:6 6:3
  • 08/10/26LAlibek Kachmazov#347Challenger Wuning 3 · R166:7 6:7
  • 06/10/26WKoki Matsuda#457Challenger Wuning 3 · R326:3 6:3
  • 01/10/26LAlex Bolt#174Challenger Jingshan · R167:6 4:6 2:6
  • 30/09/26WHanyi Liu#856Challenger Jingshan · R326:3 6:4
  • 29/09/26WAleksandar Vukic#127Challenger Jingshan · Q26:3 4:2
  • 28/09/26WZhiheng XiaChallenger Jingshan · Q16:1 6:0

Yuta Shimizu

Elo over the last year

Evan ZhuYuta Shimizu

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

E. ZhuY. Shimizu
Hard court25–1760%25–2352%
Clay0–10%2–167%

Head to head

E. Zhu 1–0 Y. Shimizu

  • 03/05/26Winner: E. Zhu6:1 2:6 6:3

Road through the tournament

Evan Zhu

Yuta Shimizu

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