Primera LPFMatchday 12

San Lorenzo 1-0 Dep. Riestra: prediction, tips and result

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San Lorenzo
0-11-01-10-20-3
1-0Full time(half time 0-0)
Dep. Riestra
1-10-00-31-11-1
Stadium:
Pedro Bidegain, Buenos Aires
Referee:
Bruno Amiconi

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Total Goals: Under 2.5Won71%

under 2.5 goals in 9 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (62% of league matches); under 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings

Other tips

  • Offsides – Dep. Riestra: Over 1.5Won63%

    our numbers for Dep. Riestra: 2.2 offsides against a league average of 1.6; Dep. Riestra: 2.3 offsides a match, San Lorenzo's opponents were caught offside 2.2 times on average, league average 1.6

  • Shots on Target – San Lorenzo: Under 4.5Won62%

    San Lorenzo: under 4.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 league matches, Dep. Riestra's opponents had under 4.5 in 8 of 10 (53% of league matches); 3.3 shots on target a match, Dep. Riestra's opponents had 3.7 on average, league average 4.5

  • Fouls – San Lorenzo: Under 10.5Lost62%

    our numbers for San Lorenzo: 9.7 fouls against a league average of 10.9; San Lorenzo: 9.6 fouls a match, Dep. Riestra's opponents committed 9.9 on average, league average 10.9

For the brave
Correct Score: 0:0Lost16%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloSan Lorenzo158538%44%Draw34%30%Dep. Riestra155028%26%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS38%35%O2.529%27%|exp. goals 1.0 : 0.8not both scored
H2Hlast 4 meetings
  1. Dep. Riestra1:1San LorenzoD
  2. San Lorenzo1:0Dep. RiestraW
  3. Dep. Riestra0:0San LorenzoD
  4. Dep. Riestra1:0San LorenzoL
San Lorenzo's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss1.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.5league 8.8under 8.5: 53%Expected corners: 8.5 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 48% of matches end under 8.5 corners.won · ended 4
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.9league 4.8over 4.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 4.9 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 23%.won · ended 7
RefereeB. Amiconi+0.2 yellow cards vs average13 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)76%X21:0coverageleague 72% · H2H 4/4covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.0 : 0.8total 1.8Attack/defence1.0 : 0.8total 1.8
San Lorenzo : Dep. Riestra
Most likely scores
Market0-016%1-015%1-114%0-112%2-08%2-1—Attack/defence0-017%1-017%1-114%0-113%2-09%2-17%
MarketAttack/defence0-00-016%0-017%1-01-015%1-017%1-11-114%1-114%0-10-112%0-113%2-02-08%2-09%2-12-1—2-17%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals88%89%89%
1X – home team avoid defeat72%73%73%
Our tip: Under 2.5 goals71%74%74%
12 – no draw66%67%67%
X2 – away team avoid defeat62%61%61%
Both teams to score: no62%65%65%
Over 1.5 goals57%53%53%
Under 1.5 goals43%47%47%
1 – San Lorenzo win38%39% · Elo 44%39%· Elo 44%
Both teams to score: yes38%35%35%
X – draw34%34% · Elo 30%34%· Elo 30%
Over 2.5 goals29%27%27%
2 – Dep. Riestra win28%27% · Elo 26%27%· Elo 26%
Over 3.5 goals12%11%11%
Attack vs defence
San Lorenzo attack vs Dep. Riestra defenceattack1406defence1561−155 pts to the attack
Dep. Riestra attack vs San Lorenzo defenceattack1415defence1548−133 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 55%close to the league averageunder 45%over
We expect 8.1 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.568%63%
7.555%52%
8.542%40%
9.530%31%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
San Lorenzowe expect 4.1, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Dep. Riestrawe expect 3.9, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 54%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 22.5 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
21.555%56%
22.548%50%
23.541%45%
24.534%37%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
San Lorenzowe expect 9.7, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 38%
Dep. Riestrawe expect 14.3, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 73%
Referee: 19.6 fouls per match on average (7 matches in our data)−3.7 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 47%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.568%65%
3.547%41%
4.528%26%
5.515%14%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
San Lorenzowe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Dep. Riestrawe expect 2.2, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 63%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • San Lorenzo: only 1 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Dep. Riestra: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • San Lorenzo score only 0.4 goals per game
  • Dep. Riestra score only 0.6 goals per game
  • Dep. Riestra matches average only 6.8 corners (league 8.8) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
  • San Lorenzo: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
  • Dep. Riestra: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form

San Lorenzo

Dep. Riestra

League position

Clausura, Group A

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10San Lorenzo124265:1114
12Dep. Riestra122559:1211
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of San Lorenzo vs Dep. Riestra?

San Lorenzo 1-0 Dep. Riestra (half time 0-0).

Did the San Lorenzo vs Dep. Riestra tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Under 2.5. The tip won.

See also