Primera LPFMatchday 11

Defensa y Justicia 3-0 San Lorenzo: prediction, tips and result

Saturday 3 October · 18:45

Defensa y Justicia

2-1 1-0 0-1 2-0 2-2

3-0Full time(half time 3-0)

San Lorenzo

0-2 1-1 1-0 0-1 0-0

Stadium:: Estadio Norberto Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa
Referee:: Luis Lobo Medina

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 2 October 2026, 19:34. A published tip never changes.

Main tip

Offsides – Defensa y Justicia: Over 2.5Lost55%

our numbers for Defensa y Justicia: 3.0 offsides against a league average of 1.7; Defensa y Justicia: 3.5 offsides a match, San Lorenzo's opponents were caught offside 2.3 times on average, league average 1.7

Other tips

Fouls – Defensa y Justicia: Over 10.5Won69%
our numbers for Defensa y Justicia: 12.7 fouls against a league average of 10.9; Defensa y Justicia: 13.0 fouls a match, San Lorenzo's opponents committed 13.6 on average, league average 10.9
Shots on Target – Defensa y Justicia: Over 4.5Lost65%
our numbers for Defensa y Justicia: 5.7 shots on target against a league average of 4.4; Defensa y Justicia: 5.1 shots on target a match, San Lorenzo's opponents had 5.2 on average, league average 4.4

For the brave

Offsides – Defensa y Justicia: Over 3.5Lost34%

Defensa y Justicia: 3.5 offsides a match, San Lorenzo's opponents were caught offside 2.3 times on average, league average 1.7; over 3.5 offsides in 5 of their last 10 league matches, San Lorenzo's opponents were caught offside over 3.5 times in 2 of 10 (12% of league matches)

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloDefensa y Justicia161745%41%Draw31%31%San Lorenzo158524%28%favourite won

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS43%43%O2.537%37%|exp. goals 1.2 : 0.9not both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

16/03/202616/03/26San Lorenzo2:5Defensa y JusticiaW
22/09/202422/09/24Defensa y Justicia0:0San LorenzoD
08/05/202308/05/23San Lorenzo0:0Defensa y JusticiaD
05/09/202205/09/22Defensa y Justicia0:0San LorenzoD
26/09/202126/09/21San Lorenzo2:1Defensa y JusticiaL

Defensa y Justicia's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss2.0 goals per match

Cornersleague corners8.8league 8.7over 8.5: 52%Expected corners: 8.8 in this match, 8.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.won · ended 11

Cardsleague cards5.1league 5.0under 5.5: 60%Expected cards: 5.1 in this match, 5.0 on average in the league.In this league 61% of matches end under 5.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.won · ended 5

RefereeL. Lobo Medina0.0 cards vs average24 matches

Dutching(several bets at once)71%U2.52:1coverageleague 75% · H2H 3/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.3 : 0.9total 2.2Attack/defence1.2 : 0.9total 2.2

Defensa y Justicia : San Lorenzo

Most likely scores

Market1-114%1-014%0-012%0-19%2-09%2-1—Attack/defence1-114%1-014%0-012%0-110%2-09%2-18%

MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-114%1-01-014%1-014%0-00-012%0-012%0-10-19%0-110%2-02-09%2-09%2-12-1—2-18%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Under 3.5 goals	83%83%	83%
1X – home team avoid defeat	76%72%	72%
12 – no draw	69%70%	70%
Over 1.5 goals	65%64%	64%
Under 2.5 goals	63%63%	63%
Both teams to score: no	57%57%	57%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	55%57%	57%
1 – Defensa y Justicia win	45%43% · Elo 41%	43%· Elo 41%
Both teams to score: yes	43%43%	43%
Over 2.5 goals	37%37%	37%
Under 1.5 goals	35%36%	36%
X – draw	31%30% · Elo 31%	30%· Elo 31%
2 – San Lorenzo win	24%28% · Elo 28%	28%· Elo 28%
Over 3.5 goals	17%17%	17%

Attack vs defence

Defensa y Justicia attack vs San Lorenzo defenceattack1518defence1554−36 pts to the attack

San Lorenzo attack vs Defensa y Justicia defenceattack1412defence1438−26 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Over 7.5 · 61%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over

We expect 8.5 in this match, 7.8 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

6.573%61%

7.561%50%

8.547%39%

9.535%30%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Defensa y Justiciawe expect 5.7, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 65%

San Lorenzowe expect 3.3, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 43%

Foulsleague average

Under 22.5 · 50%close to the league averageunderover 50%

We expect 22.8 in this match, 22.7 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

21.557%55%

22.550%51%

23.543%46%

24.537%38%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Defensa y Justiciawe expect 12.7, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 69%

San Lorenzowe expect 10.9, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 41%

Referee: 21.2 fouls per match on average (25 matches in our data)−1.4 vs the league average

Offsidesleague average

Over 3.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over

We expect 4.1 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.578%65%

3.559%41%

4.540%26%

5.524%15%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Defensa y Justiciawe expect 3.0, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 77%

San Lorenzowe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 37%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

San Lorenzo: only 0 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
San Lorenzo score only 0.4 goals per game
Defensa y Justicia: 18 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
Defensa y Justicia: 15 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
San Lorenzo: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form