BundesligaMatchday 8

Hartberg 4-3 A. Lustenau: prediction, tips and result

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Hartberg
0-22-13-22-23-3
4-3Full time(half time 1-2)
A. Lustenau
2-01-20-41-12-1
Stadium:
Profertil Arena Hartberg, Hartberg
Referee:
Markus Greinecker

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Corners: Over 9.5Lost60%

13.4 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 13.1 in the visitors', league average 9.6; over 9.5 corners in 6 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 7 (46% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Cards – A. Lustenau (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Won65%

    A. Lustenau: under 2.5 card points in 5 of their last 7 league matches, Hartberg's opponents collected under 2.5 card points in 7 of 7 (57% of league matches); Hartberg's opponents collected 0.6 card points on average, league average 2.4; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

For the brave
Corners: Over 11.5Lost37%

13.4 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 13.1 in the visitors', league average 9.6; over 11.5 corners in 5 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 3 of the visitors' last 7 (28% of league matches)

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloHartberg158740%48%Draw27%28%A. Lustenau151333%25%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%54%O2.555%50%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.2both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. A. Lustenau0:4HartbergW
  2. Hartberg2:2A. LustenauD
  3. A. Lustenau5:1HartbergL
  4. Hartberg0:1A. LustenauL
  5. Hartberg1:1A. LustenauD
Hartberg's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.6league 9.6over 9.5: 60%Expected corners: 10.6 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end over 9.5 corners.lost · ended 9
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.9over 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 30%.lost · ended 1
RefereeM. Greinecker+0.6 yellow cards vs average5 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)67%BTTS yes1:0coverageleague 64% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.4total 2.9Attack/defence1.5 : 1.2total 2.7
Hartberg : A. Lustenau
Most likely scores
Market1-113%1-08%2-19%1-28%0-17%2-0—0-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-010%2-19%1-2—0-18%2-08%0-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-08%1-010%2-12-19%2-19%1-21-28%1-2—0-10-17%0-18%2-02-0—2-08%0-00-0—0-07%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals79%74%74%
12 – no draw73%73%73%
Under 3.5 goals68%72%72%
1X – home team avoid defeat67%69%69%
X2 – away team avoid defeat60%57%57%
Both teams to score: yes59%54%54%
Over 2.5 goals55%50%50%
Under 2.5 goals45%50%50%
Both teams to score: no41%46%46%
1 – Hartberg win40%43% · Elo 48%43%· Elo 48%
2 – A. Lustenau win33%31% · Elo 25%31%· Elo 25%
Over 3.5 goals32%28%28%
X – draw27%27% · Elo 28%27%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals21%26%26%
Attack vs defence
Hartberg attack vs A. Lustenau defenceattack1443defence1467−24 pts to the attack
A. Lustenau attack vs Hartberg defenceattack1441defence1465−24 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 8.4 in this match, 8.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.559%54%
8.546%36%
9.534%23%
10.523%19%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Hartbergwe expect 4.2, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 42%
A. Lustenauwe expect 4.2, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 59%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 70%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 30%
We expect 18.1 in this match, 20.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.537%54%
20.530%50%
21.523%43%
22.518%37%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Hartbergwe expect 9.1, league average 9.8 · chance of over 9.5: 43%
A. Lustenauwe expect 8.4, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 24%
Referee: 22.0 fouls per match on average (3 matches in our data)+0.6 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.565%59%
3.544%45%
4.526%24%
5.513%16%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Hartbergwe expect 2.0, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 58%
A. Lustenauwe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 40%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Hartberg matches average only 2.2 cards (league 4.1) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Hartberg matches average 12.6 corners (league 9.6) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
  • A. Lustenau: newly promoted
  • Hartberg: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • A. Lustenau: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Hartberg

A. Lustenau

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Hartberg832314:1611
9A. Lustenau822411:158
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Hartberg vs A. Lustenau?

Hartberg 4-3 A. Lustenau (half time 1-2).

Did the Hartberg vs A. Lustenau tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Corners: Over 9.5. The tip lost.

See also