Chinese Super LeagueMatchday 28
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao West Coast: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS58%53%O2.567%57%|exp. goals 2.0 : 0.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Qingdao West Coast1:1Beijing GuoanD
- Qingdao West Coast1:3Beijing GuoanW
- Beijing Guoan1:0Qingdao West CoastW
- Qingdao West Coast2:2Beijing GuoanD
- Beijing Guoan4:1Qingdao West CoastW
Beijing Guoan's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 10.1under 10.5: 61%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 10.1 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.9over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.4 : 1.0total 3.4Attack/defence2.0 : 0.9total 3.0
Beijing Guoan : Qingdao West CoastMost likely scores
Market2-010%1-18%1-0—2-110%3-18%3-08%Attack/defence2-011%1-110%1-010%2-110%3-17%3-07%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-010%2-011%1-11-18%1-110%1-01-0—1-010%2-12-110%2-110%3-13-18%3-17%3-03-08%3-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 86%84% | 84% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86%80% | 80% |
| 12 – no draw | 83%79% | 79% |
| 1 – Beijing Guoan win | 69%62% · Elo 65% | 62%· Elo 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67%57% | 57% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58%53% | 53% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 55%65% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45%35% | 35% |
| Both teams to score: no | 42%47% | 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33%43% | 43% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 31%38% | 38% |
| X – draw | 17%21% · Elo 21% | 21%· Elo 21% |
| 2 – Qingdao West Coast win | 14%16% · Elo 14% | 16%· Elo 14% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Beijing Guoan attack vs Qingdao West Coast defenceattack1641defence1521+120 pts to the attack
Qingdao West Coast attack vs Beijing Guoan defenceattack1396defence1562−166 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.561%59%
8.548%52%
9.536%42%
10.525%31%
Each team on its own
Beijing Guoanwe expect 5.1, league average 5.0 · chance of over 4.5: 56%
Qingdao West Coastwe expect 3.4, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 44%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 23.5 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.555%52%
23.548%45%
24.541%39%
25.535%32%
Each team on its own
Beijing Guoanwe expect 11.8, league average 11.3 · chance of over 11.5: 50%
Qingdao West Coastwe expect 11.8, league average 12.0 · chance of over 11.5: 50%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.569%60%
3.548%43%
4.530%27%
5.516%18%
Each team on its own
Beijing Guoanwe expect 2.1, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 60%
Qingdao West Coastwe expect 1.6, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Beijing Guoan13 matches unbeatenat home: 6Went on 78%League 72%Model 86%Record 27
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Beijing Guoan score 2.3 goals per game
- Qingdao West Coast matches average only 7.9 corners (league 10.1) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Beijing Guoan: unbeaten in 13 matches
- Beijing Guoan: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Qingdao West Coast: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 52:33 | 41 |
| 6 | Qingdao West Coast | 27 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 31:36 | 38 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao West Coast?
Beijing Guoan are the favourites. Chances: Beijing Guoan win 69%, draw 17%, Qingdao West Coast win 14%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao West Coast?
Expected goals: 3.4 (Beijing Guoan 2.4, Qingdao West Coast 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 67%. Most likely score: 2-1.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao West Coast?
The chance that both teams score is 58%.
When is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao West Coast?
The Chinese Super League match kicks off 18 October 2026, 12:00 (UK time).