ChampionshipMatchday 3
Derby 0-3 Swansea: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- Pride Park Stadium, Derby
- Referee:
- David Webb
Our tips
Main tip
Cards: Under 3.5Lost57%
referee David Webb averages 2.7 cards a match, league average 3.9; our numbers: 3.4 cards against a league average of 3.9
For the brave
Cards: Under 2.5Lost36%
referee David Webb averages 2.7 cards a match, league average 3.9; our numbers: 3.4 cards against a league average of 3.9
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS51%52%O2.545%47%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.1not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Derby2:0SwanseaW
- Swansea1:2DerbyW
- Swansea1:0DerbyL
- Derby1:2SwanseaL
- Swansea2:1DerbyL
Derby's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.5under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.5 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 11
Cardsleague cards3.4league 3.9under 3.5: 57%Expected cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 6%.lost · ended 5
RefereeD. Webb−1.2 cards vs average29 matches
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.1total 2.4Attack/defence1.5 : 1.1total 2.6
Derby : SwanseaMost likely scores
Market1-114%1-011%0-010%2-19%0-19%2-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%0-08%2-19%0-18%2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%1-01-011%1-011%0-00-010%0-08%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-19%0-18%2-02-0—2-08%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 77%74% | 74% |
| 12 – no draw | 71%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71%73% | 73% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 70%71% | 71% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 59%56% | 56% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: no | 49%48% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45%47% | 47% |
| 1 – Derby win | 41%44% · Elo 40% | 44%· Elo 40% |
| 2 – Swansea win | 30%29% · Elo 32% | 29%· Elo 32% |
| X – draw | 29%27% · Elo 28% | 27%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29%27% | 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23%26% | 26% |
Attack vs defence
Derby attack vs Swansea defenceattack1513defence1508+5 pts to the attack
Swansea attack vs Derby defenceattack1481defence1497−16 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16:7 | 23 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:15 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Derby vs Swansea?
Derby 0-3 Swansea (half time 0-2).
Did the Derby vs Swansea tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Cards: Under 3.5. The tip lost.