BundesligaMatchday 5
Augsburg 2-2 Bayern Munich: prediction, tips and result
·
- Stadium:
- WWK Arena, Augsburg
- Referee:
- Sven Jablonski
Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Main tip
Total Goals: Over 3.5Won69%
our numbers: 4.7 goals in total in this match, league average 3.3
Other tips
- Yellow Cards: Under 3.5Won65%
referee Sven Jablonski averages 2.6 yellow cards a match, league average 3.6; our numbers: 3.0 yellow cards against a league average of 3.6
- Shots on Target – Bayern Munich: Over 5.5Won62%
our numbers for Bayern Munich: 6.6 shots on target against a league average of 4.2
- Fouls – Augsburg: Under 9.5Lost69%
our numbers for Augsburg: 8.2 fouls against a league average of 9.9
- Offsides – Bayern Munich: Over 1.5Won63%
our numbers for Bayern Munich: 2.2 offsides against a league average of 1.7
For the brave
Correct Score: 1:3Lost8%
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS67%65%O2.586%71%|exp. goals 1.3 : 2.4both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Bayern Munich1:2AugsburgW
- Augsburg2:3Bayern MunichL
- Augsburg1:3Bayern MunichL
- Bayern Munich3:0AugsburgL
- Augsburg2:3Bayern MunichL
Augsburg's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses4.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 9.9over 9.5: 58%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 9.5 corners.won · ended 14
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.0league 3.6under 3.5: 65%Expected yellow cards: 3.0 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.won · ended 3
RefereeS. Jablonski−1.1 yellow cards vs average26 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)67%U4.51:41:50:5coverageleague 81% · H2H 3/5covered
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 3.6total 4.8Attack/defence1.3 : 2.4total 3.7
Augsburg : Bayern MunichMost likely scores
Market1-26%1-38%1-1—0-2—1-47%0-37%0-46%0-1—Attack/defence1-29%1-38%1-18%0-28%1-4—0-36%0-4—0-16%
MarketAttack/defence1-21-26%1-29%1-31-38%1-38%1-11-1—1-18%0-20-2—0-28%1-41-47%1-4—0-30-37%0-36%0-40-46%0-4—0-10-1—0-16%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 95%88% | 88% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 92%82% | 82% |
| 12 – no draw | 90%81% | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86%71% | 71% |
| 2 – Bayern Munich win | 82%63% · Elo 78% | 63%· Elo 78% |
| Our tip: Over 3.5 goals | 71%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67%65% | 65% |
| Both teams to score: no | 33%35% | 35% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 29%50% | 50% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 18%37% | 37% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 14%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 10%19% · Elo 14% | 19%· Elo 14% |
| 1 – Augsburg win | 8%18% · Elo 8% | 18%· Elo 8% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5%12% | 12% |
Attack vs defence
Augsburg attack vs Bayern Munich defenceattack1459defence1646−187 pts to the attack
Bayern Munich attack vs Augsburg defenceattack1777defence1471+306 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 66%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 34%over
We expect 11.1 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.576%60%
9.566%48%
10.555%36%
11.544%27%
Each team on its own
Augsburgwe expect 5.2, league average 5.3 · chance of over 5.5: 42%
Bayern Munichwe expect 6.6, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 76%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 66%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 34%
We expect 17.8 in this match, 20.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.542%59%
19.534%53%
20.528%46%
21.522%39%
Each team on its own
Augsburgwe expect 8.2, league average 9.9 · chance of over 9.5: 31%
Bayern Munichwe expect 8.9, league average 10.0 · chance of over 10.5: 30%
Referee: 20.7 fouls per match on average (23 matches in our data)+0.7 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 3.9 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.574%66%
3.554%46%
4.535%30%
5.520%16%
Each team on its own
Augsburgwe expect 1.7, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Bayern Munichwe expect 2.2, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 63%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Bayern Munich score 3.6 goals per game
- Augsburg: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Bayern Munich: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Bayern Munich: unbeaten in 19 matches
- Augsburg: 18 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 12 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Augsburg: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Bayern Munich: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16:4 | 11 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13:8 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
Augsburg 2-2 Bayern Munich (half time 1-0).
Did the Augsburg vs Bayern Munich tip win?
Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 3.5. The tip won.