1. LigaMatchday 12
Ruch vs Grodzisk Mazowiecki: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%O2.553%54%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.2
H2Hlast 2 meetings
- Ruch2:2Grodzisk MazowieckiD
- Grodzisk Mazowiecki2:2RuchD
Ruch's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses4.0 goals per match
too few to read anything intoCornersleague corners10.7league 11.1under 11.5: 61%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 11.1 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 11.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.5 : 1.3total 2.8Attack/defence1.6 : 1.2total 2.8
Ruch : Grodzisk MazowieckiMost likely scores
Model1-113%2-19%1-08%1-28%2-0—0-17%Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%1-27%2-08%0-17%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-08%1-09%1-21-28%1-27%2-02-0—2-08%0-10-17%0-17%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70%68% | 68% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 67%71% | 71% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 60%54% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53%54% | 54% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%46% | 46% |
| 1 – Ruch win | 40%46% · Elo 43% | 46%· Elo 43% |
| 2 – Grodzisk Mazowiecki win | 33%29% · Elo 29% | 29%· Elo 29% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30%32% | 32% |
| X – draw | 27%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Ruch attack vs Grodzisk Mazowiecki defenceattack1532defence1498+34 pts to the attack
Grodzisk Mazowiecki attack vs Ruch defenceattack1520defence1529−9 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 8.1 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.569%64%
7.556%48%
8.542%36%
9.530%28%
Each team on its own
Ruchwe expect 4.3, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 43%
Grodzisk Mazowieckiwe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 25.2 in this match, 25.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.553%54%
25.546%51%
26.540%44%
27.534%36%
Each team on its own
Ruchwe expect 13.8, league average 13.1 · chance of over 13.5: 50%
Grodzisk Mazowieckiwe expect 11.4, league average 12.6 · chance of over 12.5: 36%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 61%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 39%over
We expect 3.2 in this match, 2.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.582%74%
2.561%49%
3.539%28%
4.522%16%
Each team on its own
Ruchwe expect 1.2, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Grodzisk Mazowieckiwe expect 2.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 59%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Ruch: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Grodzisk Mazowiecki: 21 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Ruch: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Grodzisk Mazowiecki: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 19:8 | 21 |
| 7 | Ruch | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:11 | 15 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ruch vs Grodzisk Mazowiecki?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Ruch win 40%, draw 27%, Grodzisk Mazowiecki win 33%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Ruch vs Grodzisk Mazowiecki?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Ruch 1.5, Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1.3). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Ruch vs Grodzisk Mazowiecki?
The 1. Liga match kicks off 25 October 2026, 13:30 (UK time).