1. LigaMatchday 11

Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa: prediction, tips and stats

Saturday 17 October · 14:30

Grodzisk Mazowiecki

2-2 1-0 2-3 2-0 4-0

1.5:1.4Pre-match

Polonia Warszawa

2-1 2-0 2-2 1-2 2-4

Our tips

Tip in 3d 11h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloGrodzisk Mazowiecki136130%37%Draw26%29%Polonia Warszawa138844%35%

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%59%O2.558%56%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.4

H2Hlast 2 meetings

14/03/202614/03/26Grodzisk Mazowiecki3:2Polonia WarszawaW
30/08/202530/08/25Polonia Warszawa2:1Grodzisk MazowieckiL

Grodzisk Mazowiecki's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss4.0 goals per match

too few to read anything into

Cornersleague corners10.8league 11.1under 11.5: 60%Expected corners: 10.8 in this match, 11.1 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 11.5 corners.

Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.8over 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.

Refereeawaiting appointment

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.4 : 1.7total 3.1Attack/defence1.5 : 1.4total 2.9

Grodzisk Mazowiecki : Polonia Warszawa

Most likely scores

Market1-112%1-29%2-17%1-0—0-17%0-27%2-2—Attack/defence1-112%1-28%2-19%1-08%0-17%0-2—2-26%

MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-21-29%1-28%2-12-17%2-19%1-01-0—1-08%0-10-17%0-17%0-20-27%0-2—2-22-2—2-26%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	81%79%	79%
12 – no draw	74%75%	75%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	70%61%	61%
Under 3.5 goals	64%66%	66%
Both teams to score: yes	61%59%	59%
Over 2.5 goals	58%56%	56%
1X – home team avoid defeat	56%65%	65%
2 – Polonia Warszawa win	44%36% · Elo 35%	36%· Elo 35%
Under 2.5 goals	42%44%	44%
Both teams to score: no	39%41%	41%
Over 3.5 goals	36%34%	34%
1 – Grodzisk Mazowiecki win	30%39% · Elo 37%	39%· Elo 37%
X – draw	26%25% · Elo 29%	25%· Elo 29%
Under 1.5 goals	19%21%	21%

Attack vs defence

Grodzisk Mazowiecki attack vs Polonia Warszawa defenceattack1520defence1521−1 pts to the attack

Polonia Warszawa attack vs Grodzisk Mazowiecki defenceattack1565defence1498+67 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Over 7.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over

We expect 8.0 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

6.568%64%

7.555%48%

8.541%36%

9.529%28%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Grodzisk Mazowieckiwe expect 4.2, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 41%

Polonia Warszawawe expect 3.9, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 53%

Foulsleague average

Under 25.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%

We expect 24.1 in this match, 25.7 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

24.545%54%

25.539%51%

26.533%44%

27.527%36%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Grodzisk Mazowieckiwe expect 12.0, league average 13.1 · chance of over 13.5: 33%

Polonia Warszawawe expect 11.9, league average 12.6 · chance of over 12.5: 42%

Offsidesleague average

Over 2.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over

We expect 3.0 in this match, 2.7 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

1.580%74%

2.558%49%

3.536%28%

4.519%16%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Grodzisk Mazowieckiwe expect 1.7, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 51%

Polonia Warszawawe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 38%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Grodzisk Mazowiecki: 21 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
Polonia Warszawa score a lot late on: 12 of 30 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
Grodzisk Mazowiecki: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
Polonia Warszawa: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form