Liga Portugal 2Matchday 5

Farense 4-0 Chaves: prediction, tips and result

·

Farense
2-13-11-11-20-0
4-0Full time(half time 2-0)
Chaves
1-01-22-20-11-4
Stadium:
Estadio de Sao Luis, Faro
Referee:
Bruno Miguel do Carmo Vieira

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards: Under 5.5Won56%

our numbers: 5.3 cards against a league average of 5.9; referee Bruno Miguel do Carmo Vieira averages 5.2 cards a match, league average 5.9

Other tips

  • Offsides – Farense: Over 1.5Won62%

    our numbers for Farense: 2.2 offsides against a league average of 1.2; Farense: 2.0 offsides a match, Chaves's opponents were caught offside 2.4 times on average, league average 1.2

  • Fouls: Under 24.5Lost60%

    our numbers: 23.3 fouls against a league average of 25.8; 22.0 fouls a match in the hosts' matches, 23.0 in the visitors', league average 25.8

  • Shots on Target – Chaves: Over 3.5Lost61%

    our numbers for Chaves: 4.3 shots on target against a league average of 3.7; Chaves: 5.4 shots on target a match, Farense's opponents had 4.2 on average, league average 3.7

For the brave
Cards: Under 4.5Won40%

referee Bruno Miguel do Carmo Vieira averages 5.2 cards a match, league average 5.9

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloFarense145041%46%Draw28%27%Chaves136730%27%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%49%O2.548%43%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.1not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Chaves2:0FarenseL
  2. Farense0:2ChavesL
  3. Chaves1:1FarenseD
  4. Farense5:0ChavesW
  5. Farense1:2ChavesL
Farense's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.4league 9.5under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.lost · ended 10
Cardsleague cards5.3league 5.9under 5.5: 56%Expected cards: 5.3 in this match, 5.9 on average in the league.In this league 45% of matches end under 5.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 27%.won · ended 3
RefereeB. Miguel do Carmo Vieira−1.0 cards vs average14 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)67%X21:0coverageleague 71% · H2H 4/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.4 : 1.2total 2.6Attack/defence1.3 : 1.1total 2.4
Farense : Chaves
Most likely scores
Market1-113%1-010%0-18%0-08%2-19%2-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-012%0-110%0-010%2-18%2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-010%1-012%0-10-18%0-110%0-00-08%0-010%2-12-19%2-18%2-02-0—2-08%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals74%69%69%
Under 3.5 goals74%78%78%
12 – no draw71%72%72%
1X – home team avoid defeat69%69%69%
X2 – away team avoid defeat58%59%59%
Both teams to score: yes53%49%49%
Under 2.5 goals52%57%57%
Over 2.5 goals48%43%43%
Both teams to score: no47%51%51%
1 – Farense win41%41% · Elo 46%41%· Elo 46%
2 – Chaves win30%31% · Elo 27%31%· Elo 27%
X – draw28%28% · Elo 27%28%· Elo 27%
Under 1.5 goals26%31%31%
Over 3.5 goals26%22%22%
Attack vs defence
Farense attack vs Chaves defenceattack1491defence1521−30 pts to the attack
Chaves attack vs Farense defenceattack1518defence1537−19 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.562%52%
8.549%39%
9.537%33%
10.526%17%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Farensewe expect 4.7, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 49%
Chaveswe expect 4.3, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 61%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 66%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 34%
We expect 23.3 in this match, 25.8 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.540%60%
25.534%48%
26.528%42%
27.523%40%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Farensewe expect 11.4, league average 13.1 · chance of over 13.5: 27%
Chaveswe expect 11.6, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 39%
Referee: 20.3 fouls per match on average (3 matches in our data)
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 62%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 38%over
We expect 3.2 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.583%69%
2.562%40%
3.540%25%
4.523%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Farensewe expect 2.2, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 62%
Chaveswe expect 1.1, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 30%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Chaves concede 2.0 goals per game
  • Chaves matches average only 4.5 cards (league 5.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Chaves: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Farense: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Chaves: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Farense

Chaves

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Farense742113:614
17Chaves71246:145
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Farense vs Chaves?

Farense 4-0 Chaves (half time 2-0).

Did the Farense vs Chaves tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards: Under 5.5. The tip won.

See also