LaLigaMatchday 9
Malaga vs Sociedad: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%56%O2.554%51%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Malaga2:0SociedadW
- Sociedad0:2MalagaW
- Sociedad2:2MalagaD
- Malaga0:2SociedadL
- Sociedad1:1MalagaD
Malaga's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 9.7over 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.5league 4.4under 4.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 4.5 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 25%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.6total 2.9Attack/defence1.4 : 1.3total 2.7
Malaga : SociedadMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-29%1-0—2-17%0-18%0-27%0-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-28%1-09%2-19%0-18%0-2—0-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-21-29%1-28%1-01-0—1-09%2-12-17%2-19%0-10-18%0-18%0-20-27%0-2—0-00-0—0-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%74% | 74% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 71%60% | 60% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%71% | 71% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 57%66% | 66% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%56% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54%51% | 51% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46%49% | 49% |
| 2 – Sociedad win | 44%34% · Elo 33% | 34%· Elo 33% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%44% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%29% | 29% |
| 1 – Malaga win | 30%40% · Elo 38% | 40%· Elo 38% |
| X – draw | 27%26% · Elo 29% | 26%· Elo 29% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Malaga attack vs Sociedad defenceattack1393defence1451−58 pts to the attack
Sociedad attack vs Malaga defenceattack1510defence1464+46 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 8.9 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.565%67%
8.553%53%
9.540%40%
10.529%31%
Each team on its own
Malagawe expect 4.9, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 36%
Sociedadwe expect 4.0, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 55%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 22.9 in this match, 23.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.550%55%
23.544%48%
24.537%43%
25.531%36%
Each team on its own
Malagawe expect 11.1, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 43%
Sociedadwe expect 11.7, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 49%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.568%69%
3.546%48%
4.528%34%
5.515%24%
Each team on its own
Malagawe expect 1.7, league average 2.1 · chance of over 2.5: 24%
Sociedadwe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 51%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sociedad concede 2.0 goals per game
- Malaga: no win in 8 matches
- Malaga: newly promoted
- Malaga: 9 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Sociedad: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | 13 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:13 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Malaga vs Sociedad?
Sociedad are the favourites. Chances: Malaga win 30%, draw 27%, Sociedad win 44%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Malaga vs Sociedad?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Malaga 1.3, Sociedad 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Malaga vs Sociedad?
The chance that both teams score is 57%.
When is Malaga vs Sociedad?
The LaLiga match kicks off 18 October 2026, 17:30 (UK time).