Super LigMatchday 9
Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%O2.540%48%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.1
H2Hlast 2 meetings
- Gaziantep2:3ErzurumsporL
- Erzurumspor1:1GaziantepD
Gaziantep's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss3.5 goals per match
too few to read anything intoCornersleague corners9.2league 9.5under 9.5: 56%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.2league 4.4under 4.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 19%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.4 : 0.9total 2.3Attack/defence1.6 : 1.1total 2.6
Gaziantep : ErzurumsporMost likely scores
Model1-114%1-013%0-012%2-010%2-19%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%0-08%2-09%2-19%0-18%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%1-01-013%1-011%0-00-012%0-08%2-02-010%2-09%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-18%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 80%74% | 74% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 77%75% | 75% |
| 12 – no draw | 70%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68%73% | 73% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60%52% | 52% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 53%52% | 52% |
| 1 – Gaziantep win | 47%48% · Elo 42% | 48%· Elo 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40%48% | 48% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 32%27% | 27% |
| X – draw | 30%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| 2 – Erzurumspor win | 23%25% · Elo 31% | 25%· Elo 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20%26% | 26% |
Attack vs defence
Gaziantep attack vs Erzurumspor defenceattack1454defence14540 pts to the attack
Erzurumspor attack vs Gaziantep defenceattack1372defence1450−78 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.552%61%
8.539%50%
9.527%37%
10.518%27%
Each team on its own
Gaziantepwe expect 4.3, league average 4.8 · chance of over 4.5: 42%
Erzurumsporwe expect 3.2, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 54%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 24.2 in this match, 24.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.552%58%
24.546%52%
25.539%48%
26.533%41%
Each team on its own
Gaziantepwe expect 11.0, league average 12.3 · chance of over 12.5: 32%
Erzurumsporwe expect 13.1, league average 12.3 · chance of over 12.5: 53%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.563%67%
3.541%44%
4.523%26%
5.512%15%
Each team on its own
Gaziantepwe expect 1.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Erzurumsporwe expect 1.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Erzurumspor: newly promoted
- Gaziantep: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Erzurumspor: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gaziantep | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7:10 | 8 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3:11 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor?
Gaziantep are the favourites. Chances: Gaziantep win 47%, draw 30%, Erzurumspor win 23%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor?
Expected goals: 2.3 (Gaziantep 1.4, Erzurumspor 0.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 40%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Gaziantep vs Erzurumspor?
The Super Lig match kicks off 24 October 2026, 14:00 (UK time).