New York Red Bulls 4-1 San Diego FC: prediction, tips and result

Sunday 11 October · 00:30

New York Red Bulls

0-0 0-2 1-0 1-0 0-3

4-1Full time(half time 3-0)

San Diego FC

3-3 2-2 0-5 2-3 0-1

Stadium:: Sport Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ
Referee:: Malik Badawi

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 10 October 2026, 20:40. A published tip never changes.

Main tip

Cards – San Diego FC (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Lost60%

San Diego FC: under 2.5 card points in 7 of their last 10 league matches, New York Red Bulls's opponents collected under 2.5 card points in 9 of 10 (56% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

Fouls – New York Red Bulls: Over 11.5Won59%
our numbers for New York Red Bulls: 12.6 fouls against a league average of 10.7; New York Red Bulls: 11.3 fouls a match, San Diego FC's opponents committed 13.7 on average, league average 10.7
Offsides – New York Red Bulls: Over 1.5Lost58%
our numbers for New York Red Bulls: 2.0 offsides against a league average of 1.6; New York Red Bulls: over 1.5 offsides in 7 of their last 10 league matches, San Diego FC's opponents were caught offside over 1.5 times in 5 of 10 (45% of league matches)

For the brave

Correct Score: 1:1Lost9%

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloNew York Red Bulls137737%37%Draw24%28%San Diego FC141239%35%favourite did not win

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS72%61%O2.572%58%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.4both scored

H2Hhome side's goals firstnever met

Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.0under 10.5: 58%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 11

Yellow cardsleague yellows4.2league 4.1under 4.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.lost · ended 5

RefereeM. Badawi+0.5 yellow cards vs average13 matches

Dutching(several bets at once)71%X22:1coverageleague 65%not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.8 : 1.9total 3.7Attack/defence1.6 : 1.4total 3.0

New York Red Bulls : San Diego FC

Most likely scores

Market1-19%2-18%1-28%1-0—2-27%0-1—1-35%Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-28%1-08%2-26%0-17%1-3—

MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-112%2-12-18%2-19%1-21-28%1-28%1-01-0—1-08%2-22-27%2-26%0-10-1—0-17%1-31-35%1-3—

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	89%80%	80%
12 – no draw	76%75%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	72%58%	58%
Both teams to score: yes	72%61%	61%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	63%59%	59%
1X – home team avoid defeat	61%66%	66%
Over 3.5 goals	51%35%	35%
Under 3.5 goals	49%65%	65%
2 – San Diego FC win	39%34% · Elo 35%	34%· Elo 35%
1 – New York Red Bulls win	37%41% · Elo 37%	41%· Elo 37%
Under 2.5 goals	28%42%	42%
Both teams to score: no	28%40%	40%
X – draw	24%25% · Elo 28%	25%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals	11%20%	20%

Attack vs defence

New York Red Bulls attack vs San Diego FC defenceattack1451defence1481−30 pts to the attack

San Diego FC attack vs New York Red Bulls defenceattack1544defence1477+67 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 9.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%

We expect 9.2 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

8.556%53%

9.544%42%

10.533%32%

11.523%24%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New York Red Bullswe expect 5.0, league average 5.0 · chance of over 5.5: 38%

San Diego FCwe expect 4.3, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 42%

Foulsleague average

Over 21.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over

We expect 22.0 in this match, 21.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

20.559%53%

21.552%45%

22.545%39%

23.538%33%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New York Red Bullswe expect 12.6, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 68%

San Diego FCwe expect 10.1, league average 10.4 · chance of over 10.5: 43%

Referee: 21.1 fouls per match on average (54 matches in our data)−0.7 vs the league average

Offsidesleague average

Over 3.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over

We expect 4.1 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.577%59%

3.558%39%

4.539%20%

5.523%11%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

New York Red Bullswe expect 2.0, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 58%

San Diego FCwe expect 2.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 63%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form