Philadelphia Union 3-2 Atlanta Utd: prediction, tips and result

Sunday 2 August · 00:30

Philadelphia Union

3-4 1-1 4-6 3-1 1-0

3-2Full time(half time 0-1)

Atlanta Utd

1-4 2-2 0-1 0-2 1-1

Stadium:: Subaru Park, Chester, PA (attendance: 18,557)
Referee:: Allen Chapman

Our tips

Main tip

Cards: Under 4.5Lost62%

under 4.5 cards in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 8 of the visitors' last 10 (50% of league matches); our numbers: 4.0 cards against a league average of 4.5

For the brave

Correct Score: 1:1Lost11%

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloPhiladelphia Union152756%59%Draw23%23%Atlanta Utd131921%18%favourite won

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%52%O2.559%53%|exp. goals 1.9 : 0.9both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

14/03/202614/03/26Atlanta Utd3:1Philadelphia UnionL
17/05/202517/05/25Atlanta Utd0:1Philadelphia UnionW
19/04/202519/04/25Philadelphia Union3:0Atlanta UtdW
28/09/202428/09/24Philadelphia Union1:1Atlanta UtdD
14/04/202414/04/24Atlanta Utd2:2Philadelphia UnionD

Philadelphia Union's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.8 goals per match

Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.9over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end over 9.5 corners.won · ended 14

Cardsleague cards4.0league 4.5under 4.5: 62%Expected cards: 4.0 in this match, 4.5 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end under 4.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 19%.lost · ended 6

RefereeA. Chapman−1.0 cards vs average13 matches

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market2.0 : 1.1total 3.1Attack/defence1.9 : 0.9total 2.8

Philadelphia Union : Atlanta Utd

Most likely scores

Market1-111%1-08%2-09%2-110%3-0—0-0—3-16%Attack/defence1-111%1-011%2-011%2-110%3-07%0-06%3-1—

MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%1-01-08%1-011%2-02-09%2-011%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-0—3-07%0-00-0—0-06%3-13-16%3-1—

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	82%77%	77%
1X – home team avoid defeat	79%82%	82%
12 – no draw	77%77%	77%
Under 3.5 goals	63%69%	69%
Over 2.5 goals	59%53%	53%
Both teams to score: yes	59%52%	52%
1 – Philadelphia Union win	56%58% · Elo 59%	58%· Elo 59%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	44%42%	42%
Under 2.5 goals	41%47%	47%
Both teams to score: no	41%48%	48%
Over 3.5 goals	37%31%	31%
X – draw	23%23% · Elo 23%	23%· Elo 23%
2 – Atlanta Utd win	21%19% · Elo 18%	19%· Elo 18%
Under 1.5 goals	18%23%	23%

Attack vs defence

Philadelphia Union attack vs Atlanta Utd defenceattack1526defence1466+60 pts to the attack

Atlanta Utd attack vs Philadelphia Union defenceattack1411defence1561−150 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

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