Philadelphia Union 2-1 Real Salt Lake: prediction, tips and result

Sunday 11 October · 00:30

Philadelphia Union

2-0 5-0 5-0 4-3 4-2

2-1Full time(half time 1-0)

Real Salt Lake

3-0 0-2 0-3 0-2 1-2

Stadium:: Subaru Park, Chester, PA
Referee:: Elijio Arreguin

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 10 October 2026, 20:40. A published tip never changes.

Main tip

Match Result: Philadelphia UnionWon72%

Philadelphia Union: 6 league wins in a row; won 8 of their last 10 league matches

Other tips

Both Teams To Score: YesWon58%
Philadelphia Union: scored in each of their last 16 league matches
Fouls: Over 22.5Won57%
referee Elijio Arreguin averages 26.8 fouls a match, league average 21.1; our numbers: 23.8 fouls against a league average of 21.1
Shots on Target – Real Salt Lake: Under 3.5Lost57%
our numbers for Real Salt Lake: 3.4 shots on target against a league average of 4.1; Real Salt Lake: 3.7 shots on target a match, Philadelphia Union's opponents had 3.2 on average, league average 4.1
Offsides: Under 3.5Won70%
under 3.5 offsides in 6 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 9 of the visitors' last 10 (61% of league matches)

For the brave

Correct Score: 2:1Won9%

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloPhiladelphia Union152772%60%Draw16%23%Real Salt Lake137512%17%favourite won

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%54%O2.570%57%|exp. goals 2.0 : 1.0both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

27/04/202427/04/24Philadelphia Union1:2Real Salt LakeL
14/07/201914/07/19Real Salt Lake4:0Philadelphia UnionL
19/05/201819/05/18Philadelphia Union4:1Real Salt LakeW
28/05/201728/05/17Real Salt Lake1:0Philadelphia UnionL
31/07/201631/07/16Philadelphia Union1:2Real Salt LakeL

Philadelphia Union's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses3.2 goals per match

Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.0under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 7

Yellow cardsleague yellows4.4league 4.1under 4.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 17%.lost · ended 6

RefereeE. Arreguin−0.2 yellow cards vs average11 matches

Dutching(several bets at once)68%BTTS yes2:0coverageleague 68% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market2.6 : 1.0total 3.6Attack/defence2.0 : 1.0total 3.0

Philadelphia Union : Real Salt Lake

Most likely scores

Market1-17%2-09%2-19%1-0—3-08%3-18%Attack/defence1-110%2-010%2-110%1-010%3-07%3-17%

MarketAttack/defence1-11-17%1-110%2-02-09%2-010%2-12-19%2-110%1-01-0—1-010%3-03-08%3-07%3-13-18%3-17%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat	88%82%	82%
Over 1.5 goals	88%80%	80%
12 – no draw	84%78%	78%
Our tip: 1 – Philadelphia Union win	72%61% · Elo 60%	61%· Elo 60%
Over 2.5 goals	70%57%	57%
Both teams to score: yes	59%54%	54%
Under 3.5 goals	51%65%	65%
Over 3.5 goals	49%35%	35%
Both teams to score: no	41%46%	46%
Under 2.5 goals	30%43%	43%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	28%39%	39%
X – draw	16%22% · Elo 23%	22%· Elo 23%
2 – Real Salt Lake win	12%18% · Elo 17%	18%· Elo 17%
Under 1.5 goals	12%20%	20%

Attack vs defence

Philadelphia Union attack vs Real Salt Lake defenceattack1605defence1508+97 pts to the attack

Real Salt Lake attack vs Philadelphia Union defenceattack1440defence1580−140 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 9.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%

We expect 8.8 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

8.551%53%

9.538%42%

10.527%32%

11.519%24%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Philadelphia Unionwe expect 5.3, league average 5.0 · chance of over 5.5: 43%

Real Salt Lakewe expect 3.4, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 26%

Foulsleague average

Over 21.5 · 63%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 37%over

We expect 23.8 in this match, 21.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

20.570%53%

21.563%45%

22.557%39%

23.550%33%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Philadelphia Unionwe expect 11.1, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 54%

Real Salt Lakewe expect 10.2, league average 10.4 · chance of over 10.5: 45%

Referee: 26.8 fouls per match on average (16 matches in our data)+5.0 vs the league average

Offsidesleague average

Under 3.5 · 70%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 30%

We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.552%59%

3.530%39%

4.515%20%

5.57%11%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Philadelphia Unionwe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 42%

Real Salt Lakewe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 36%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Philadelphia Union score 3.2 goals per game
Philadelphia Union: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
Philadelphia Union: 6 wins in a row
Philadelphia Union: 26 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 18 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
Real Salt Lake: only 5 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
Philadelphia Union: 14 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
Real Salt Lake: 14 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

League form