Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes: prediction, tips and stats
·
- Referee:
- Sergii Demianchuk
Our tips
Tip in 21h 39mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS65%58%O2.565%55%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Real Salt Lake2:1San Jose EarthquakesW
- San Jose Earthquakes4:0Real Salt LakeL
- San Jose Earthquakes0:1Real Salt LakeW
- Real Salt Lake0:2San Jose EarthquakesL
- San Jose Earthquakes2:1Real Salt LakeL
Real Salt Lake's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 10.0under 10.5: 58%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.1league 4.1under 4.5: 62%Expected yellow cards: 4.1 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.
RefereeS. Demianchuk−0.3 yellow cards vs average13 matches
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.0 : 1.4total 3.4Attack/defence1.6 : 1.3total 2.9
Real Salt Lake : San Jose EarthquakesMost likely scores
Market1-110%2-19%1-0—1-26%2-07%0-1—2-26%Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%1-27%2-07%0-17%2-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-0—1-09%1-21-26%1-27%2-02-07%2-07%0-10-1—0-17%2-22-26%2-2—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%75% | 75% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 74%70% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65%58% | 58% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 56%67% | 67% |
| 1 – Real Salt Lake win | 51%44% · Elo 41% | 44%· Elo 41% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 48%56% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44%33% | 33% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35%45% | 45% |
| Both teams to score: no | 35%42% | 42% |
| 2 – San Jose Earthquakes win | 25%30% · Elo 31% | 30%· Elo 31% |
| X – draw | 23%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Real Salt Lake attack vs San Jose Earthquakes defenceattack1441defence1473−32 pts to the attack
San Jose Earthquakes attack vs Real Salt Lake defenceattack1517defence1515+2 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 9.0 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.554%55%
9.541%44%
10.530%33%
11.521%25%
Each team on its own
Real Salt Lakewe expect 4.9, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 37%
San Jose Earthquakeswe expect 4.0, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 36%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 22.0 in this match, 21.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.559%53%
21.551%46%
22.544%40%
23.538%35%
Each team on its own
Real Salt Lakewe expect 11.1, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 54%
San Jose Earthquakeswe expect 10.4, league average 10.5 · chance of over 10.5: 46%
Referee: 22.4 fouls per match on average (27 matches in our data)+0.9 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.554%59%
3.532%39%
4.516%20%
5.57%11%
Each team on its own
Real Salt Lakewe expect 1.8, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
San Jose Earthquakeswe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 29%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Real Salt Lake concede 2.0 goals per game
- Real Salt Lake: only 4 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Real Salt Lake: 4 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- San Jose Earthquakes: 4 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Western Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 50:40 | 46 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 41:46 | 32 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Real Salt Lake are the favourites. Chances: Real Salt Lake win 51%, draw 23%, San Jose Earthquakes win 25%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Expected goals: 3.4 (Real Salt Lake 2.0, San Jose Earthquakes 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 65%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
The chance that both teams score is 65%.
When is Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
The MLS match kicks off 15 October 2026, 02:30 (UK time).
Who is the referee for Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
The referee is Sergii Demianchuk. In 13 matches in our data they showed 3.8 yellow cards a match on average.