Sporting Kansas City 3-3 Portland Timbers: prediction, tips and result

Sunday 11 October · 01:30

Sporting Kansas City

3-4 3-1 3-4 2-0 1-2

3-3Full time(half time 1-2)

Portland Timbers

1-3 0-1 1-2 2-2 5-4

Stadium:: Sporting Park, Kansas City, KS
Referee:: Pierre-Luc Lauziere

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 10 October 2026, 21:40. A published tip never changes.

Main tip

Cards – Portland Timbers (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Won63%

Portland Timbers: under 2.5 card points in 9 of their last 10 league matches, Sporting Kansas City's opponents collected under 2.5 card points in 8 of 10 (56% of league matches); 1.6 card points a match, Sporting Kansas City's opponents collected 1.8 card points on average, league average 2.4; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

Total Goals: Over 2.5Won72%
our numbers: 3.7 goals in total in this match, league average 3.3
Fouls – Portland Timbers: Under 9.5Won62%
our numbers for Portland Timbers: 8.8 fouls against a league average of 10.4; Portland Timbers: under 9.5 fouls in 7 of their last 10 league matches, Sporting Kansas City's opponents committed under 9.5 in 7 of 10 (42% of league matches)
Offsides – Sporting Kansas City: Under 1.5Won66%
Sporting Kansas City: 0.7 offsides a match, Portland Timbers's opponents were caught offside 1.2 times on average, league average 1.6; under 1.5 offsides in 8 of their last 10 league matches, Portland Timbers's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 7 of 10 (55% of league matches)

For the brave

Correct Score: 1:2Lost8%

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloSporting Kansas City127934%32%Draw23%28%Portland Timbers138743%40%favourite did not win

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS72%65%O2.572%63%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.7both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

10/05/202610/05/26Portland Timbers6:0Sporting Kansas CityL
11/05/202511/05/25Portland Timbers1:0Sporting Kansas CityL
13/04/202513/04/25Sporting Kansas City2:4Portland TimbersL
26/05/202426/05/24Portland Timbers2:1Sporting Kansas CityL
07/04/202407/04/24Sporting Kansas City3:3Portland TimbersD

Sporting Kansas City's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses4.4 goals per match

Cornersleague corners10.0league 10.0under 10.5: 58%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.won · ended 7

Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 4.1under 4.5: 67%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 10%.won · ended 1

RefereeP.-L. Lauziere−0.6 yellow cards vs average15 matches

Dutching(several bets at once)67%1X1:2coverageleague 78% · H2H 2/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.8 : 2.0total 3.8Attack/defence1.6 : 1.7total 3.2

Sporting Kansas City : Portland Timbers

Most likely scores

Market1-19%1-28%2-17%2-27%0-1—1-0—1-35%Attack/defence1-111%1-29%2-18%2-27%0-16%1-06%1-3—

MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-111%1-21-28%1-29%2-12-17%2-18%2-22-27%2-27%0-10-1—0-16%1-01-0—1-06%1-31-35%1-3—

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	89%83%	83%
12 – no draw	77%76%	76%
Over 2.5 goals	72%63%	63%
Both teams to score: yes	72%65%	65%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	66%64%	64%
1X – home team avoid defeat	57%60%	60%
Over 3.5 goals	52%41%	41%
Under 3.5 goals	48%59%	59%
2 – Portland Timbers win	43%40% · Elo 40%	40%· Elo 40%
1 – Sporting Kansas City win	34%36% · Elo 32%	36%· Elo 32%
Under 2.5 goals	28%37%	37%
Both teams to score: no	28%35%	35%
X – draw	23%24% · Elo 28%	24%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals	11%17%	17%

Attack vs defence

Sporting Kansas City attack vs Portland Timbers defenceattack1437defence1469−32 pts to the attack

Portland Timbers attack vs Sporting Kansas City defenceattack1497defence1342+155 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 9.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%

We expect 9.3 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

8.557%53%

9.545%42%

10.533%32%

11.523%24%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Sporting Kansas Citywe expect 5.1, league average 5.0 · chance of over 5.5: 40%

Portland Timberswe expect 4.2, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 42%

Foulsleague average

Under 21.5 · 69%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 31%

We expect 19.2 in this match, 21.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

20.538%53%

21.531%45%

22.525%39%

23.520%33%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Sporting Kansas Citywe expect 10.6, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 48%

Portland Timberswe expect 8.7, league average 10.4 · chance of over 10.5: 28%

Referee: 21.7 fouls per match on average (93 matches in our data)−0.4 vs the league average

Offsidesleague average

Under 3.5 · 65%close to the league averageunderover 35%

We expect 3.0 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.557%59%

3.535%39%

4.519%20%

5.59%11%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Sporting Kansas Citywe expect 1.2, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 34%

Portland Timberswe expect 1.7, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 50%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Sporting Kansas City concede 2.1 goals per game
Portland Timbers: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
Sporting Kansas City: 9 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
Portland Timbers: 14 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

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