Seattle Sounders 2-1 Sporting Kansas City: prediction, tips and result

Friday 2 October · 02:30

Seattle Sounders

0-0 1-1 3-3 2-0 3-1

2-1Full time(half time 0-1)

Sporting Kansas City

2-0 3-4 3-1 3-4 0-3

Stadium:: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Referee:: Jair Antonio Marrufo

Our tips

Main tip

Cards: Under 3.5Won57%

referee Jair Antonio Marrufo averages 2.2 cards a match, league average 4.3; our numbers: 3.4 cards against a league average of 4.3

Other tips

Total Goals: Over 2.5Won73%
our numbers: 3.9 goals in total in this match, league average 3.3
Fouls – Seattle Sounders: Under 10.5Won65%
our numbers for Seattle Sounders: 9.4 fouls against a league average of 10.7; Seattle Sounders: under 10.5 fouls in 6 of their last 10 league matches, Sporting Kansas City's opponents committed under 10.5 in 8 of 10 (48% of league matches)
Offsides – Seattle Sounders: Under 1.5Won62%
Seattle Sounders: under 1.5 offsides in 8 of their last 10 league matches, Sporting Kansas City's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 7 of 10 (55% of league matches); 1.0 offsides a match, Sporting Kansas City's opponents were caught offside 1.3 times on average, league average 1.6

For the brave

Correct Score: 2:1Won9%

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloSeattle Sounders146561%62%Draw19%22%Sporting Kansas City127919%16%favourite won

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS68%56%O2.573%62%|exp. goals 2.2 : 1.0both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

02/05/202602/05/26Sporting Kansas City1:1Seattle SoundersD
25/08/202525/08/25Seattle Sounders5:2Sporting Kansas CityW
13/07/202513/07/25Sporting Kansas City2:3Seattle SoundersW
15/09/202415/09/24Seattle Sounders2:0Sporting Kansas CityW
09/06/202409/06/24Sporting Kansas City2:1Seattle SoundersL

Seattle Sounders's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss3.8 goals per match

Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.0under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.lost · ended 17

Cardsleague cards3.4league 4.3under 4.5: 74%Expected cards: 3.4 in this match, 4.3 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 4.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.won · ended 2

RefereeJ. Antonio Marrufo−2.5 cards vs average11 matches

Dutching(several bets at once)68%11:1coverageleague 55% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market2.5 : 1.4total 3.9Attack/defence2.2 : 1.0total 3.2

Seattle Sounders : Sporting Kansas City

Most likely scores

Market2-07%2-19%1-18%1-0—3-0—3-17%2-26%Attack/defence2-010%2-110%1-19%1-09%3-07%3-17%2-2—

MarketAttack/defence2-02-07%2-010%2-12-19%2-110%1-11-18%1-19%1-01-0—1-09%3-03-0—3-07%3-13-17%3-17%2-22-26%2-2—

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	90%83%	83%
1X – home team avoid defeat	80%84%	84%
12 – no draw	80%80%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	73%62%	62%
Both teams to score: yes	68%56%	56%
1 – Seattle Sounders win	61%65% · Elo 62%	65%· Elo 62%
Over 3.5 goals	53%39%	39%
Under 3.5 goals	47%61%	61%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	38%36%	36%
Both teams to score: no	32%44%	44%
Under 2.5 goals	27%38%	38%
X – draw	19%20% · Elo 22%	20%· Elo 22%
2 – Sporting Kansas City win	19%16% · Elo 16%	16%· Elo 16%
Under 1.5 goals	10%17%	17%

Attack vs defence

Seattle Sounders attack vs Sporting Kansas City defenceattack1494defence1340+154 pts to the attack

Sporting Kansas City attack vs Seattle Sounders defenceattack1431defence1562−131 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 9.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%

We expect 9.2 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

8.556%53%

9.543%42%

10.532%32%

11.522%24%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Seattle Sounderswe expect 5.2, league average 5.0 · chance of over 5.5: 41%

Sporting Kansas Citywe expect 4.0, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 38%

Foulsleague average

Under 21.5 · 84%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 16%

We expect 16.8 in this match, 21.2 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

20.521%53%

21.516%46%

22.512%39%

23.59%33%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Seattle Sounderswe expect 9.4, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 35%

Sporting Kansas Citywe expect 9.0, league average 10.4 · chance of over 10.5: 31%

Referee: 19.9 fouls per match on average (118 matches in our data)−2.6 vs the league average

Offsidesleague average

Under 3.5 · 76%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 24%

We expect 2.5 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.545%59%

3.524%39%

4.511%20%

5.54%10%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Seattle Sounderswe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 38%

Sporting Kansas Citywe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 29%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Sporting Kansas City concede 2.3 goals per game
Seattle Sounders matches average only 3.0 cards (league 4.3) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
Seattle Sounders: 5 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
Sporting Kansas City: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

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