Sacramento Republic 3-2 Las Vegas Lights: prediction, tips and result

Thursday 1 October · 03:00

Sacramento Republic

1-1 1-1 1-0 0-0 3-2

3-2Full time(half time 1-1)

Las Vegas Lights

1-1 2-0 1-2 0-2 0-2

Stadium:: Papa Murphy's Park, Sacramento, CA

Our tips

Main tip

Cards: Under 4.5Lost58%

3.0 cards a match in the hosts' matches, 4.5 in the visitors', league average 4.4

Other tips

Shots on Target: Under 8.5Won70%
6.2 shots on target a match in the hosts' matches, 6.1 in the visitors', league average 8.0; under 8.5 shots on target in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 9 of the visitors' last 10 (65% of league matches)
Fouls – Sacramento Republic: Under 10.5Won68%
our numbers for Sacramento Republic: 9.2 fouls against a league average of 10.8; Sacramento Republic: 9.4 fouls a match, Las Vegas Lights's opponents committed 8.8 on average, league average 10.8
Offsides: Over 2.5Lost60%
4.0 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 2.6 in the visitors', league average 2.9

For the brave

Cards: Under 3.5Lost40%

3.0 cards a match in the hosts' matches, 4.5 in the visitors', league average 4.4

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloSacramento Republic157264%61%Draw21%22%Las Vegas Lights140915%17%favourite won

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS49%41%O2.552%39%|exp. goals 1.5 : 0.7both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

12/04/202612/04/26Las Vegas Lights1:1Sacramento RepublicD
05/07/202505/07/25Las Vegas Lights0:2Sacramento RepublicW
18/05/202518/05/25Sacramento Republic5:0Las Vegas LightsW
02/11/202402/11/24Las Vegas Lights0:0Sacramento RepublicD
22/09/202422/09/24Las Vegas Lights2:1Sacramento RepublicL

Sacramento Republic's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.4 goals per match

Cornersleague corners9.1league 9.2under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.lost · ended 20

Cardsleague cards4.3league 4.4under 4.5: 58%Expected cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 4.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.lost · ended 7

Refereeno referee data

Dutching(several bets at once)74%11:1coverageleague 55% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.9 : 0.8total 2.7Attack/defence1.5 : 0.7total 2.3

Sacramento Republic : Las Vegas Lights

Most likely scores

Market1-012%2-012%1-111%0-0—2-110%3-08%0-1—Attack/defence1-016%2-012%1-112%0-011%2-19%3-0—0-17%

MarketAttack/defence1-01-012%1-016%2-02-012%2-012%1-11-111%1-112%0-00-0—0-011%2-12-110%2-19%3-03-08%3-0—0-10-1—0-17%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat	85%83%	83%
12 – no draw	79%74%	74%
Over 1.5 goals	77%66%	66%
Under 3.5 goals	70%81%	81%
1 – Sacramento Republic win	64%56% · Elo 61%	56%· Elo 61%
Over 2.5 goals	52%39%	39%
Both teams to score: no	51%59%	59%
Both teams to score: yes	49%41%	41%
Under 2.5 goals	48%61%	61%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	36%44%	44%
Over 3.5 goals	30%19%	19%
Under 1.5 goals	23%34%	34%
X – draw	21%27% · Elo 22%	27%· Elo 22%
2 – Las Vegas Lights win	15%18% · Elo 17%	18%· Elo 17%

Attack vs defence

Sacramento Republic attack vs Las Vegas Lights defenceattack1512defence1471+41 pts to the attack

Las Vegas Lights attack vs Sacramento Republic defenceattack1412defence1644−232 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 8.5 · 70%close to the league averageunderover 30%

We expect 7.2 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

7.543%50%

8.530%35%

9.520%29%

10.512%24%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Sacramento Republicwe expect 4.2, league average 4.6 · chance of over 4.5: 40%

Las Vegas Lightswe expect 2.6, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 28%

Foulsleague average

Under 22.5 · 62%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 38%

We expect 21.1 in this match, 22.3 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

21.545%62%

22.538%50%

23.532%45%

24.526%40%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Sacramento Republicwe expect 9.2, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 32%

Las Vegas Lightswe expect 11.9, league average 11.5 · chance of over 11.5: 52%

Offsidesleague average

Over 2.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over

We expect 3.1 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

1.582%70%

2.560%55%

3.538%36%

4.521%15%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Sacramento Republicwe expect 1.8, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 52%

Las Vegas Lightswe expect 1.4, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 41%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Sacramento Republic matches average only 3.0 cards (league 4.4) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
Las Vegas Lights: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
Sacramento Republic: unbeaten in 8 matches
Sacramento Republic: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
Las Vegas Lights: 11 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.

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