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ATP ParisMasters 1000Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Cerúndolo vs Kovacevic 2:0: result and our tips

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Juan Manuel CerúndoloATP #54Elo 1937hard 1855
2:0final7:6(5) 6:3
Aleksandar KovacevicATP #84Elo 1803hard 1785

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Won65%

Where the number comes from: market alone 60% → with the players' profiles 65%

Kovacevic: 5 matches in a row over 21.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo45%
Aleksandar Kovacevic55%

Elo: J. Cerúndolo 60% · A. Kovacevic 40%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Cerúndolo26%
2:1 J. Cerúndolo20%
2:1 A. Kovacevic21%
2:0 A. Kovacevic34%

First set

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo46%
Aleksandar Kovacevic54%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 24.0 · 49%market (no margin): 50%

The 24.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 25.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.573%27%60%
21.565%35%54%
22.560%41%46%
23.551%49%40%
24.545%55%38%
25.543%57%35%
26.539%61%30%

Sample: 5,715 matches

Games handicap

A. Kovacevic −1.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes52%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 24.0in · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Juan Manuel CerúndoloAleksandar Kovacevic
13Aces3
4Double faults4
60%First serves in68%
75%First-serve points won80%
62%Second-serve points won33%
2/6Break points converted1/3
10/11Service games held8/10
70%Service points won65%
35%Return points won30%
74Total points won65

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. CerúndoloTourA. Kovacevic
Service points won64%62%66%
Return points won37%38%31%
Service games held80%76%84%
Breaks of serve22%24%12%
Aces per service game0.430.76
Double faults per game0.220.26
Sets with a tie-break19%30%
Tie-breaks won15/3122/44
Wins in straight sets58%61%
Matches in the sample6459

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Elo over the last year

Juan Manuel CerúndoloAleksandar Kovacevic

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. CerúndoloA. Kovacevic
Hard court13–1252%15–2241%
Clay23–1364%7–944%
Grass2–250%1–517%

Head to head

J. Cerúndolo 1–0 A. Kovacevic

  • 23/04/25Winner: J. Cerúndolo3:6 7:5 6:2

Upcoming matches

See also