ATP Brussels250Round of 16hard, indoorbest of three sets

Chidekh vs Fearnley 2:0: result and our tips

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Clement ChidekhATP #152Elo 1840hard 1839
2:0final7:6(4) 6:2
Jacob FearnleyATP #87Elo 1947hard 1903

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Won60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

No third set in recent matches: Chidekh 16 of 20, Fearnley 15 of 20 (tour average 64%); Fearnley: 7 matches in a row without a deciding set

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 24.5Won57%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Fearnley: 7 matches in a row under 24.5 games; Under 24.5 games in recent matches: Chidekh 14 of 20, Fearnley 15 of 20 (tour average 62%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 21.5Won42%

Where the number comes from: market alone 40% → with the players' profiles 42%

Chidekh: 3 matches in a row under 21.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Clement Chidekh48%
Jacob Fearnley52%

Elo: C. Chidekh 41% · J. Fearnley 59%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Chidekh28%
2:1 C. Chidekh20%
2:1 J. Fearnley20%
2:0 J. Fearnley32%

First set

Clement Chidekh48%
Jacob Fearnley52%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 50%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.9

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.572%28%68%
20.564%36%60%
21.558%42%54%
22.550%50%46%
23.545%55%40%
24.543%57%38%
25.538%62%35%

Sample: 5,268 matches

Games handicap

Jacob Fearnley −0.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes39%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Under 23.0in · 21 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Clement ChidekhJacob Fearnley
5Aces8
3Double faults3
58%First serves in71%
82%First-serve points won68%
50%Second-serve points won33%
3/10Break points converted1/1
9/10Service games held7/10
68%Service points won58%
42%Return points won32%
80Total points won69

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. ChidekhTourJ. Fearnley
Service points won63%62%62%
Return points won42%38%40%
Service games held78%76%76%
Breaks of serve31%24%28%
Aces per service game0.290.39
Double faults per game0.250.46
Sets with a tie-break14%20%
Tie-breaks won13/2214/33
Wins in straight sets68%61%
Matches in the sample6864

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Clement Chidekh

Jacob Fearnley

Elo over the last year

Clement ChidekhJacob Fearnley

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. ChidekhJ. Fearnley
Hard court37–1670%23–2152%
Clay1–325%2–340%
Grass6–555%11–473%

Head to head

C. Chidekh 1–1 J. Fearnley

  • 17/02/26Winner: Clement Chidekh6:3 2:6 6:2
  • 09/06/24Winner: Jacob Fearnley6:2 3:6 6:7

Road through the tournament

Clement Chidekh

Jacob Fearnley