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Challenger Villa MariaChallenger 50Round of 32claybest of three sets

Estevez vs Tabata 1:2: result and our tips

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Juan EstevezATP #357Elo 1475clay 1473
1:2final6:4 3:6 4:6
Ryo TabataATP #934Elo 1519clay 1580

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Juan Estevez67%
Ryo Tabata33%

Elo: J. Estevez 35% · R. Tabata 65%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Estevez44%
2:1 J. Estevez23%
2:1 R. Tabata15%
2:0 R. Tabata18%

First set

Juan Estevez63%
Ryo Tabata37%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.575%25%76%
18.567%33%68%
19.559%41%59%
20.553%47%52%
21.546%54%46%
22.541%59%40%
23.538%62%36%

Sample: 4,413 matches

Games handicap

J. Estevez −3.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 29 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Juan EstevezRyo Tabata
1Aces4
1Double faults1
81%First serves in69%
66%First-serve points won63%
47%Second-serve points won61%
3/6Break points converted4/9
10/14Service games held12/15
62%Service points won62%
38%Return points won38%
87Total points won93

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. EstevezTourR. Tabata
Service points won59%62%60%
Return points won43%38%39%
Service games held69%76%72%
Breaks of serve33%24%25%
Aces per service game0.130.19
Double faults per game0.210.20
Sets with a tie-break13%15%
Tie-breaks won5/114/6
Wins in straight sets81%43%
Matches in the sample3516

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Juan Estevez

Ryo Tabata

  • 02/11/26WSantiago De la Fuente#757Challenger Villa Maria · Q26:2 5:7 6:2
  • 01/11/26WRocco ValenteChallenger Villa Maria · Q16:2 3:6 6:3
  • 20/09/26LSvyatoslav Gulin#407Challenger Plovdiv 4 · Q16:7 1:6
  • 17/06/26LMax Alcala Gurri#130Challenger Royan · R162:6 2:6
  • 16/06/26WYanki Erel#299Challenger Royan · R326:7 6:3 7:6
  • 15/06/26WLorenzo Angelini#531Challenger Royan · Q26:0 7:5
  • 14/06/26WRobinson Le MeurChallenger Royan · Q16:1 1:6 6:1
  • 12/04/26LYusuke Takahashi#792Challenger Wuning 2 · Q12:6 1:6
  • 05/04/26LUisung Park#754Challenger Wuning · Q17:6 2:6 4:6
  • 29/03/26LTai Leonard Sach#514Challenger Miyazaki · Q15:7 7:6 4:6

Elo over the last year

Juan EstevezRyo Tabata

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. EstevezR. Tabata
Hard court0–02–722%
Clay16–2044%5–271%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Juan Estevez

First match in this tournament.

Ryo Tabata